EURUSD analysis 17.11.2020

The single currency, the euro, fluctuated in a narrow, bullish range during the Asian session against the US dollar, on the cusp of developments and expected economic data on Tuesday by the third largest economy in the euro area, Italy, and the US economy, the largest in the world.

At exactly 06:31 AM GMT, the euro pair rose against the US dollar by 0.03% to 1.1855 levels compared to the opening levels at 1.1852, after the pair achieved its highest level during the session's trading at 1.1867, while it reached its lowest level at 1.1851.

The markets are looking to Italy for the release of the trade balance indicator reading, which may reflect the widening of the surplus to a value of 4.30 billion euros compared to 3.93 billion euros last August. Otherwise, the markets are looking forward to the developments in the ongoing talks between the European Union and Britain regarding the British exit file. The European Union, especially with the near deadline.

We would like to point out that some of the report touched yesterday on the fact that Brussels called on London to take a decision regarding the talks, and that progress has been made on the legal texts of the new agreement between them, but that there are no mutually acceptable solutions to the fisheries file and equal opportunities, and it is mentioned that there is a report issued recently by the Office British Prime Minister Boris Johnson spoke of Johnson's complete confidence that his country will prosper even if its negotiations with the European Union fail.

On the other hand, investors are awaiting the US economy, as the retail sales index, which represents about half of consumer spending, which represents more than two-thirds of the US GDP, will be revealed, and may reflect slowing growth to 0.5% compared to 1.9% last September. The core reading of the same index may also show a slowdown in growth to 0.6%, compared to 1.5% in September.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the import price index reading, which may indicate a slowdown in growth to 0.2% compared to 0.3% in September, and before we witness the largest industrial country in the world disclosing industrial sector data with the release of the Industrial Production Index, which may reflect a rise of 1.1. This was compared to a decrease of 0.6% in September, in conjunction with the index reading of the energy utilization rate, which showed an increase to 72.3%, compared to 71.5% in September.

Up to the disclosure of housing market data with the release of the housing index reading by the National Association of Home Builders, which may reflect stability at a value of 85, with little change from what it was in the previous reading for last October, coinciding with the release of the final reading of the index Wholesale inventories which may show growth accelerating to 0.5%, compared to 0.3% in August.

Technical analysis

The EUR / USD pair resumed its positive trading after testing the 1.1820 level yesterday, which supports the continuation of the expected bullish trend scenario in the intraday and short term, as the MA 50 meets the aforementioned support to protect the suggested positive scenario, waiting for more upside to visit 1.2011, which represents our main target next one.

On the other hand, we should note that a breach of 1.1820 will stop the expected rise and pressure the price to visit 1.1720 areas before any new attempt to rise.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.1800 support and 1.1950 resistance

The expected general trend for today: Bullish