AUDUSD analysis 05.11.2020

The Australian dollar fluctuated in a narrow range that tends to decline during the Asian session, to witness its retracement of the second session from its highest since October 12 against the US dollar, following the developments and economic data that they followed on the Australian economy and on the cusp of economic developments and data expected today, Thursday, by the American economy. The largest economy in the world, which includes the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, in conjunction with the near completion of the counting of the American voters, to determine the American president for the next four years.

At exactly 04:06 AM GMT, the Australian dollar against the US dollar fell 0.17% to 0.7170 levels compared to opening levels at 0.7182, after the pair achieved its lowest level during the session's trading at 0.7145, while it achieved its highest at 0.7189.

We have followed up on the Australian economy the release of the Trade Balance Index reading, which showed the surplus widening to a value of 5.63 billion Australian dollars compared to 2.62 billion Australian dollars last August, surpassing the expectations that indicated that the surplus would widen to 3.70 billion Australian dollars, and this came with a rise The exports index reading 4% versus 4.1% in August, and the imports index reading 6% against a rise of 1.3%.

On the other hand, investors in the US economy are awaiting the release of the aid claims index reading for last week in late October, which may reflect a decrease of 11,000 requests to 740,000 requests compared to 751,000 requests in the previous reading, as the continuous aid requests reading may also appear. Last week, on the 24th of last month, there was a drop by 556 thousand requests to 7.2 million, compared to 7,756 thousand requests in the previous reading.

This comes in conjunction with the disclosure of the preliminary reading of the non-agricultural sector productivity index, which reflects a slowdown in growth to 3.6% compared to 10.1% in the last second quarter, while the preliminary reading of the labor cost index may show a decrease of 10.0% compared to a rise of 9.0% in the second quarter. This coincided with the November 4-5 FOMC meeting via satellite in Washington.

This is expected to keep monetary policymakers at the Federal Reserve during the current meeting on interest rates at the lowest ever, between zero and 0.25%, before we witness the press conference to be held by Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell half an hour after the end of the meeting To comment on the decisions and directions of the committee that previously approved several stimulus programs to support the economy in the face of the repercussions of the Corona pandemic.

Otherwise, we would like to point out that the preliminary indications for the US elections currently reflect the Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, winning 264 electoral votes, while the forty-fifth US president, Republican Donald Trump, got 214, and we would like to point out that winning the White House requires that the candidate for the post of President of the United States win 270 electoral votes. At least out of 538 electoral votes representing 50 states of the United States of America.

In the same context, and in view of the results of the US congressional elections, the Republican Party won about 48 seats in the Senate and the Democratic Party won about 46 seats, while other parties won two seats, out of 100 seats. For one of the poles of American politics, the Democratic Party Or his Republican counterpart on the majority in the Senate requires winning about 51 seats.

As for the House of Representatives, the Democrats won 204 seats while the Republicans won 190 seats out of 435 seats, and it takes to win a majority of the House one party to get 218 seats, and the vote count of the American electorate is still ongoing amid global follow-up to that event, which will determine the orientations and policies of the states. United political and economic development in the next four years, which will be reflected in one way or another on politics and the global economy.

Technical analysis

The Australian dollar against the US dollar made a clear breach of the descending channel's resistance and settled above it, which stopped the negative scenario suggested in our recent reports and leads the price to turn towards the upside again, on its way to achieving positive targets that start at 0.7325 and extend to 0.7413.

Therefore, a bullish bias will be likely for today unless breaking 0.7120 level and holding with a daily close below it.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.7100 support and 0.7240 resistance.

The expected general trend for today: Bullish.