Gold analysis 30.10.2020

Futures contracts for gold prices fluctuated in a narrow range slanting to an upward trend during the Asian session, to witness its rebound for the second session from its lowest since September 28, amid the bounce of the US dollar index for the second session from its highest since the end of the same month according to the inverse relationship between them on the cusp of economic developments and data Today, Friday, the US economy is the largest economy in the world, and investors are concerned about the outbreak of the second wave of the Corona virus globally.

At 06:08 a.m. GMT, gold futures contracts for December delivery rose 0.35% to trade at $ 1,874.40 per ounce, compared to the opening at $ 1,867.90 an ounce, knowing that the contracts started the session on a downward price gap after it was concluded Yesterday's trading at $ 1,868.00 per ounce, amid the US dollar index retreating 0.05% to 93.85 compared to the opening at 93.89.

Investors' attention is currently directed to the activities of the meeting of senior Chinese leaders in the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, which began at the beginning of this week and continues until Friday to plan the course of economic development for the next fifteen years for the largest Asian economy, the second largest economy in the world, the largest consumer of minerals in the world and the second largest country. Industrial in the world.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting the US economy to unveil data on personal spending and income, which may reflect the stability of personal spending growth at 1.0% in September, and an increase in personal income of 0.3% compared to a decline of 2.7% in August. Core PCE growth slowed to 0.3%, from 0.2% in August.

This also comes in conjunction with the disclosure of the unit labor cost index reading, which may reflect the stability of growth at 0.5% during the third quarter, and before we witness the disclosure of the industrial sector data for the largest industrial country in the world with the release of the Chicago PMI reading, which may reflect the contraction of the expansion. To a value of 58.2, compared to 62.4 last September.

Up to the disclosure of the final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, which may confirm an expansion of 81.2, unchanged from the previous initial reading for the current month, and an expansion of 80.4 in September, with the release of consumer expectations for inflation for the month of October. / October for one year and for the next five years.

Otherwise, the tension still exists between the two poles of US policy, Republicans and Democrats over the approval of a second stimulus package to support the economy in the face of the negative repercussions of the Corona pandemic, and we would like to point out that the US Republican President Donald Trump expressed yesterday that Democratic House Speaker Nancy Blossi does not want to Reaching an agreement on the stimulus package before the upcoming US presidential elections next week.

The forty-fifth US President also noted that Trump is heading to approve a huge and very large stimulus package and that he wants a huge stimulus package more than Blossi wants, expressing that the Republicans will win the majority of the House of Representatives and perform well with the Senate, and adding that we will propose a huge stimulus package once the elections are over, and he mentions Trump said earlier this week that he would likely pass a second stimulus package after the US presidential election.

Other than that, we followed last Tuesday the data of the Gold Association in China that gold consumption increased during the past three months on September 30th from the second quarter by 29% to about 548 tons of gold, while the data reflected a decline in the same percentage for the same months of 2019. We would like to point out that the Union had previously reported that China's consumption declined 38% on an annual basis in the first half of 2020 due to the outbreak of Corona and the slowdown in the Chinese economy.

Technical analysis

Gold price shows some bullish tendency after touching our main awaited target at 1860.90, which indicates the strength and importance of this level, and it heads towards retesting the previously broken horizontal support that turns into resistance now at 1882.40, with the need to monitor the price at this level, as it needs to hold below it to remain The negative scenario exists for the upcoming period.

Consequently, we are continuing to suggest the bearish trend in the intraday and short term, whose targets start with breaking 1860.90 to open the way to heading towards 1794.85 as the next main target, bearing in mind that breaching 1882.40 will stop the expected decline and push the price to initially test 1901.80 before any new attempt to decline.

The expected trading range for today is between 1850.00 support and 1890.00 resistance.

The expected general trend for today: Bearish.