Gold analysis 16.10.2020

Futures contracts for gold prices fluctuated in a narrow range that tends to decline, to witness their rebound to the third session in five sessions from the highest since September 21, and to prepare for the first weekly losses in three weeks amid the rise in the dollar index according to the inverse relationship between them on the cusp of developments and expected economic data today Friday by the US economy and with the markets weighing the increase in Corona cases globally and the tension and attraction between the two poles of the US policy towards the approval of a second stimulus package to support the largest economy in the world in the face of the Corona pandemic.

At 06:07 in the morning GMT, gold futures contracts for December delivery fell 0.15% to trade at $ 1,909.80 per ounce compared to the opening at $ 1,906.00 per ounce, knowing that the contracts started the session on a rising price gap after it was concluded Yesterday's trading was at $ 1,908.90 an ounce, with the US dollar index rising 0.03% to 93.82 compared to the opening at 93.79.

Investors are currently awaiting the US economy, the largest economy in the world, revealing a reading of retail sales, which represents about half of consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the US gross domestic product, and may reflect an acceleration of growth to 0.7% compared to 0.6% in August. Meanwhile, the core retail sales index may show growth slowing to 0.4% versus 0.7% in August.

This comes before we witness the disclosure of industrial sector data by the largest industrial country in the world with the release of the Industrial Production Index, which may reflect an acceleration of growth to 0.6% compared to 0.4% in August, in conjunction with the reading of the energy utilization rate showed an increase to 72.1% Against 71.4%, and before the final reading of the wholesale inventories index was released, which may indicate an acceleration of growth to 0.3%, compared to 0.1% in July.

Up to revealing the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, which may show a contraction of the breadth to a value of 80.2 compared to 80.4 last September. Otherwise, the tension continues between the poles of US policy, the ruling Republican Party and the Democratic Party regarding the approval of a second stimulus package on On the eve of the upcoming US presidential elections, on the third of November.

Yesterday, we followed up on Democratic American Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Blousey expressed that the second stimulus package, which aims to support the US economy in the face of the repercussions of the Corona pandemic, will not wait until next January, and it is expected that Blossy will make another phone call with US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin as part of the efforts to bridge the gap between the two poles of American politics.

Technical analysis

The price of gold was able to settle for a long time below the level of 1901.80, to breach this level and settle above it again, which provides indications on the price direction to achieve expected gains during the upcoming sessions, on its way to visit 1934.86 again.

Therefore, a bullish bias will be likely for today, supported by moving above the SMA 50, bearing in mind that the breach of 1901.80 and stability below it will place the price under negative pressure that targets 1880.00 then 1860.90 as next major stations.

The expected trading range for today is between 1890.00 support and 1935.00 resistance.

The expected general trend for today: Bullish.