Gold analysis 15.10.2020

Futures contracts for prices fluctuated in a narrow range that tends to decline, to witness its retracement of the third session in four sessions from its highest since September 21, overlooking the decline of the dollar index according to the inverse relationship between them following the developments that they followed from the Chinese economy, the largest consumer of metals in the world and on the cusp of developments and data The economic anticipated today, Thursday, by the US economy, the largest economy in the world, and in the midst of looking forward to the activities of the European Union summit to discuss the future trade relations of the Union with Britain after the recent exit from it.

At exactly 05:41 am GMT, gold futures contracts for December delivery fell 0.09% to trade at $ 1,904.20 per ounce compared to the opening at $ 1,906.00 per ounce, knowing that the contracts started the session on a downward price gap after it was concluded Yesterday's trading was at $ 1,907.30 per ounce, while the US dollar index declined 0.02% to 93.42 compared to the opening at 93.44.

We have followed up on the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics disclosing inflation data with the release of the annual consumer price index reading, which showed the slowdown in growth to 1.7% compared to 2.4% in August, worse than expectations that indicated a slowdown in growth to 1.9%, as for the annual reading of the price index. Producers showed that the contraction widened to 2.1% versus 2.0%, contrary to expectations that indicated a contraction of the contraction to 1.9%.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting the American economy for the release of the aid requests index reading for the past week on the tenth of this month, which may reflect a decline of 30 thousand requests to 810 thousand requests compared to 840 thousand applications in the previous weekly reading, as the reading of aid requests may appear. Continuing for the past week, on the third of October, a decrease by 276 thousand requests to 10,976 thousand requests compared to 10.7 million requests.

This comes in conjunction with the disclosure by the largest industrial country in the world of industrial sector data, with the release of the Philadelphia Industrial Index reading, which may reflect a contraction of the expansion to a value of 14.4 compared to 15.0 in September. 13.9 compared to 17.0 in September, and with the release of the import price index reading, which may indicate a slowdown in growth to 0.3%, compared to 0.9% in August.

This comes before the US Treasury Department disclosed a reading of the federal budget, which may reflect the shrinking of the deficit to a value of $ 123.3 billion compared to $ 200.1 billion in August, and before we witness the speech of a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Chairman of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank, Neil Kashkari. About the economic outlook, in a virtual chat by the fireplace hosted by New York University.

In view of the developments of the second stimulus package expected in the United States, we followed yesterday the US Secretary of the Treasury Stephen Mnuchin expressed that reaching an agreement on the stimulus before the upcoming US presidential elections on November 3 will be difficult, after another phone call to him. With Democratic US House Speaker Nancy Blossy.

It is noteworthy that the markets were hoping that lawmakers in America would reach an agreement that would allow the way to adopt more stimulus soon to confront negative dependencies of the Corona pandemic on the performance of the largest economy in the world, especially about the latest proposal by the majority leader in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, but time is limited to vote on The bill to help small businesses next week, and Democrats also do not want to adopt a partial stimulus measure.

Otherwise, the markets are looking forward to the developments of the Brexit file and the European summit that is scheduled to be held in Brussels to discuss developments in trade negotiations and future relations between Britain and the Union after the exit. In another context, the European Central Bank Governor Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak in a discussion via Later on the Internet about the global economy as part of the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

On the other hand, European Union leaders intensified their efforts to curb the spread of the coronavirus throughout the old continent, with France announcing more stringent measures, and Germany warning of economic risks in conjunction with London's readiness to tighten restrictions, and in another context, we followed last Tuesday to stop the American regulators in a form. Temporary trial of coronavirus antibody therapy due to safety concerns.

This came after we also followed, Tuesday, temporarily suspending the trial of the Corona virus vaccine in the American company Johnson & Johnson, after one of the participants in the treatment trial had an unexplained disease, and according to the latest figures issued by the World Health Organization, the number of cases infected with the virus increased to more Of 38 million, 1,083,234 people were killed in 235 countries.

Technical analysis

The price of gold was able to end yesterday's trading below the level of 1901.80, so that the bearish trend scenario remains effective in the intraday and short term, supported by the negative pressure formed by the moving average 50, noting that the stochastic indicator is now crossing negatively, forming a negative motive that we are waiting to contribute to pushing the price. To head towards our main expected target at 1860.90.

From here, our bearish expectations will remain valid and effective in the intraday and short term terms, noting that breaching 1901.80 and holding above it will push the price to visit 1934.86 areas again before any new attempt to decline.

The expected trading range for today is between 1870.00 support and 1910.00 resistance

The expected general trend for today: Bearish.