AUDUSD analysis 14.10.2020

The Australian dollar fluctuated in a narrow, upward range during the Asian session against the US dollar, following the developments and economic data that they followed on the Australian economy and looking forward to a speech by the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Philip Lowe, and on the cusp of developments and economic data expected today, Wednesday, by the US economy, the largest economy in the world. It includes speeches by several members of the Federal Open Market Committee.
 
At exactly 03:58 am GMT, the Australian dollar against the US dollar rose 0.10% to 0.7168 levels, compared to opening levels at 0.7161, after the pair achieved its highest level during the session's trading at 0.7174, while it reached its lowest level at 0.7153.
 
On the Australian economy, we have followed up on the disclosure of the Wespac Consumer Confidence Index reading, which showed a rise of 11.9% to 105.0, compared to a rise of 18.0% at 93.8 last September. Otherwise, markets are looking forward later today to what will be revealed by the bank’s governor’s speech. Central Australian Philip Lowe, who is scheduled to speak at the annual City Australia and New Zealand Investment Conference via satellite.
 
This comes hours before the release tomorrow, Thursday, of the Australian labor market data for the past month and consumer expectations for inflation for this month, with the release of the unemployment rate index, which may reflect an increase to 7.0% compared to 6.8% in August, and the employment change index reading, which may indicate a decline. By 38.0 thousand jobs, compared to an increase of 111.0 thousand, in addition to the release of the Melbourne Institute reading of consumer expectations for inflation.
 
Other than that, we followed yesterday the report that touched on China’s ban on imports of Australian coal for an "indefinite period" in light of the escalating political tensions between Australia and China, the largest trading partner of Australia, the largest Asian economy and the second largest economy in the world, which led to the survival of many Australian ships. Stuck in Chinese ports and heavier at the beginning of this week, respectively, on the performance of the Australian dollar.
 
In the same context, some report stated that the Chinese authorities reported the prohibition of Australian coke verbally, indicating that the informal approach is politically motivated, given Australia's criticism of China about the global outbreak of the Corona pandemic, while we would like to point out, that this ban is in line with Beijing's goal to reduce Consuming coal as an energy source to reduce carbon emissions coincides with China's work to tighten import quotas for coal.
 
On the other hand, investors are currently waiting for the US economy to release a reading of the producer price index, which is a preliminary indicator of inflation, which may reflect a slowdown in growth to 0.2% compared to 0.4% in August. While the annual reading of the index may show a growth of 0.2% against a contraction of 0.2%, and the substantial annual reading reflects an acceleration of growth to 0.9% versus 0.6%.
 
And this comes before we witness the speech of the members of the Federal Open Market Committee via satellite, each of the Vice Governor of the Federal Reserve, Richard Clarida, who will talk about the economic outlook and monetary policy at the annual meeting of the Institute of International Finance, and Deputy Governor of the Federal Reserve Randall Quarles, who will participate in a panel discussion On financial stability in a seminar hosted by the Systematic Risk Board.
 
All the way to the US Treasury Department's disclosure of the federal budget reading, which may reflect a narrowing of the deficit to a value of $ 123.3 billion compared to $ 200.1 billion in August, before we witness the Federal Reserve Vice Governor Quarles' speech again with a member of the Federal Reserve and Chairman of the Bank of Dallas Federal Reserve Robert Kaplan on financial regulation in the Monetary Policy Hypothetical Series at the Hoover Institution and Kaplan's later talk on economic expectations in monetary policy in the hypothetical Town Hall hosted by the Texas Tribune.

Technical analysis

 
The Australian dollar against the US dollar continues to fluctuate inside the rising wedge, and we are still waiting to break the support of this pattern, which now rises to 0.7160, or breach the resistance 0.7230 to determine the next direction more precisely, which makes us remain neutral so far.
 
We mention that breaking the aforementioned support will pressure the price to achieve negative targets that start at 0.7100 and extend to 0.6964, while breaching the resistance will lead the price to resume the main bullish trend, whose next target is at 0.7400.
 
The expected trading range for today is between 0.7100 support and 0.7230 resistance
 
The expected overall trend for today: Neutral