AUDUSD analysis 01.10.2020

The Australian dollar fluctuated in a narrow range slanting to an upward trend during the Asian session, to witness its retracement to the fifth session from its lowest since July 20 against the US dollar following the developments and economic data that they followed on the Australian economy and on the cusp of economic developments and data expected today, Thursday, by the largest US economy Economy in the World which includes the speech of members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

At exactly 03:50 am GMT, the Australian dollar against the US dollar rose 0.24% to 0.7179 levels compared to opening levels at 0.7162, after the pair achieved its highest level since September 22 at 0.7181, while it reached its lowest level at 0.7155. .

We followed up on the Australian economy the release of the manufacturing index reading by the Australian Industrial Group (AIG), which showed the expansion of the contraction to a value of 46.7 compared to a value of 49.3 in the previous reading for the month of August, and we would like to point out that the release of the reading is less than a value of 50 that reflects The sector is shrinking, while its issuance at a value of 50 or higher reflects the breadth of the sector.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting the US economy to unveil data on personal spending and income, which may reflect a slowdown in the growth of personal spending to 0.7% compared to 1.9% in July, and a decline of 2.0% in personal income compared to a rise of 0.4% in July. Meanwhile, the core PCE reading may indicate that growth remained stable at 0.3% in August.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the aid requests index reading for the past week on September 26, which may reflect a decrease of 20 thousand requests to 850 thousand applications compared to 870 thousand applications in the previous weekly reading. The same month, a decrease of 355 thousand applications to 12,225 thousand applications compared to 12,580 thousand applications.

Up to the disclosure of the final reading of the Manufacturing PMI by Markit from the United States, which may reflect the stability of the expansion at a value of 53.5, unchanged from the initial reading for the past month and compared to 53.1 in August, before we also witness the American economy the release of The construction spending index reading, which shows growth accelerating to 0.8%, compared to 0.1% in July.

This comes in conjunction with the disclosure by the largest industrialized country in the world of a reading of the Industrial Supply Institute index, which may show that the expansion has stabilized at a value of 56.0 without little change than it was in the previous reading for the month of August, while the reading of the same index measured by prices may indicate that the breadth has decreased This amounted to 59.0 versus 59.5 in August.

Markets are also looking forward to the FOMC members ’speech, as New York Federal Reserve Chairman John Williams will deliver opening remarks at the New York Federal Reserve’s research conference on FinTech, before we witness Fed Deputy Governor Michael Bowman participating in a panel discussion. Titled "The Important Role of Community Banks in Ensuring Urgent Access to Mortgage Credit" in Montana.

Technical analysis

The Australian dollar against the US dollar managed to reach our awaited positive target at 0.7190, and it gets positive support from the 50 moving average, which supports the chances of surpassing the aforementioned level and paving the way for achieving more expected rise in the coming period, paving the way to restore the main bullish trend again.

From here, we expect to witness additional positive trading today, and the next targets start at 0.7300 and extend to 0.7413, bearing in mind that failure to surpass 0.7190 will pressure the price to bounce to the downside and resume the bearish corrective scenario again.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.7120 support and 0.7250 resistance.

The expected general trend for today: Bullish.