Gold analysis 01.10.2020

Futures contracts for gold prices fluctuated in a narrow range tending to rise during the Asian session, to witness a rebound to the fourth in six sessions from the lowest since July 22, amid the bounce of the US dollar index to the fifth session from its highest since the 24th of the same month according to the inverse relationship between them on the cusp Economic developments and data expected today, Thursday, by the US economy, the largest economy in the world, which includes speeches by members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

At exactly 05:14 am GMT, gold futures contracts for December delivery rose 0.31% to trade at $ 1,897.00 per ounce compared to the opening at $ 1,891.20 per ounce, knowing that the contracts started the session on a downward price gap after it was concluded Yesterday's trading at $ 1,895.50 an ounce, amid the US dollar index retreating 0.12% to 93.71 compared to the opening at 93.82.

Investors are currently awaiting the US economy to disclose personal spending and income data, which may reflect a slowdown in the growth of personal spending to 0.7% compared to 1.9% in July, and a decline in personal income of 2.0% compared to a rise of 0.4% in July. The core personal consumption expenditures index reading stabilized growth at 0.3% last August.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the aid requests index reading for the past week on September 26th, which may reflect a decrease of 20 thousand requests to 850 thousand applications compared to 870 thousand applications in the previous weekly reading, and the reading of continuous aid requests for the past week may appear on 19 of The same month, a decrease of 355 thousand applications to 12,225 thousand applications compared to 12,580 thousand applications.

Up to the disclosure of the final reading of the Manufacturing PMI by Markit from the United States, which may reflect the stability of the expansion at a value of 53.5, unchanged from the initial reading for the past month and compared to 53.1 in August, before we also witness the American economy the release of The construction spending index reading, which shows growth accelerating to 0.8%, compared to 0.1% in July.

This also comes in conjunction with the disclosure by the largest industrial country in the world of a reading of the Industrial Supply Institute index, which may show the stability of the expansion at a value of 56.0 without little change than it was in the previous reading for the month of August, while the reading of the same index measured by prices may show a contraction Widening to 59.0, compared to 59.5 in August.

Later today, markets are looking forward to a speech by members of the Federal Open Market Committee, as New York Federal Reserve Chairman John Williams will deliver opening remarks at the New York Bank Research Conference on "Fin-Tech", before we see Fed Deputy Governor Michael Bowman participating in an episode. Discussion titled "The Important Role of Community Banks in Ensuring Urgent Access to Mortgage Credit" in Montana.

Technical analysis

Gold price fluctuates around SMA 50, and maintains its stability below 1901.80 until now, which maintains the bearish trend scenario valid and effective for the upcoming period, awaiting a visit to levels of 1877.00 then 1860.90 as the next major stations.

Keep in mind that stability below 1901.80 is important for the continuation of the expected decline, as breaching it will stop the expected decline and lead the price to present new recovery attempts and open the way to head towards areas of 1934.86 initially.

The expected trading range for today is between 1870.00 support and 1910.00 resistance.

The expected general trend for today: Bearish.