USDJPY analysis 30.09.2020

The US dollar fluctuated in a narrow range that tends to decline during the Asian session, to witness its rebound from its high since September 15 against the Japanese yen following the developments and economic data that they followed on the Japanese economy and on the cusp of economic developments and data expected today, Wednesday, by the US economy, the largest economy in The world which includes the speech of the members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

At exactly 07:03 AM GMT, the US dollar against the Japanese yen fell by 0.16% to 105.49 levels, after the pair achieved its lowest level during the session's trading at 105.47, while the pair achieved its highest in two weeks at 105.80.

We have followed up on the Japanese economy, the second largest in Asia and the third largest in the world, revealing the seasonally adjusted reading of the retail sales index, which showed an increase of 4.6% against a decline of 3.4% in July, beating expectations for a 3.2% rise, while the reading indicated The annual decline in the same index narrowed to 1.9% from 2.9% in July, also beating expectations that indicated a widening decline to 3.2%.

We also followed the second largest industrial country in Asia and the third largest industrial country in the world, revealing industrial sector data with the release of the preliminary reading of industrial production, which showed a slowdown in growth to 1.7% compared to 8.7% in July, surpassing expectations that indicated 1.5% growth. While the annual reading of the same index showed a contraction of the decline to 13.3% compared to 15.5% in July, worse than expectations for a 10.0% decline.

Coming to the disclosure of housing market data with the release of the annual reading of the Housing Starts Index, which showed a decline in the decline to 9.1% compared to 20.4% in July, surpassing expectations that indicated a decrease in the decline to 10.0%. Otherwise, we have just followed the President’s call New Japanese cabinet minister Yoshihide Suga to Japanese wireless carriers to lower prices, according to Reuters news agency.

On the other hand, investors are waiting for the US economy to reveal preliminary data on the US labor market with the release of the index of change in private sector jobs, which may reflect an acceleration of job creation to 650,000 jobs compared to 428,000 jobs in August, hours before The unveiling tomorrow, Friday, of the monthly report on jobs other than agricultural and unemployment rates, in addition to the average hourly income for the month of September.

This comes before we witness the disclosure of the final reading of the gross domestic product index, which may confirm the contraction of the largest economy in the world 31.7%, unchanged from the previous preliminary reading for the second quarter and against a contraction of 5.0% in the previous reading of the last first quarter, as the final reading of the index may confirm The same measured by prices shrinking 2.0%, unchanged from the previous initial reading, and against 1.4% growth in the first quarter.

Down to the disclosure of industrial sector data for the largest industrialized country in the world, with the release of the Chicago PMI reading, which may reflect an expansion to 52.0 compared to 51.2 in August, before the US housing market data was revealed with the release of existing home sales, which may It shows growth slowing to 3.1%, from 5.9% in July.

Markets are also looking forward to the members of the Federal Open Market Committee each of Minneapolis Federal Reserve Chairman Neil Kashkari about the Coronavirus and the economy in a hypothetical forum hosted by Wisconsin for manufacturers and trade, and Deputy Governor of the Federal Reserve Michael Bowman, who will deliver a speech under the title "Banks Rise to the Challenge." In community banking at the 21st Century Research and Policy Conference.

Technical analysis

The dollar versus yen was unable to breach the resistance line that appears in the image and stabilize above it, until the bullish trend scenario is activated on the intraday basis, on its way to visit the 106.44 level mainly, supported by the move above the 50 SMA.

The bullish bias remains likely during the upcoming sessions, keeping in mind that breaking 105.55 will stop the expected rise and push the price to test the pivotal support 105.20 in an attempt to resume the main bearish trend again.

The expected trading range for today is between 105.00 support and 106.44 resistance.

The expected general trend for today: Bullish.