Gold analysis 30.09.2020

Futures contracts for gold prices fluctuated in a narrow range that tends to decline during the Asian session amid the positive stability of the US dollar index according to the inverse relationship between them following developments and economic data that they followed on the Chinese economy, the largest consumer of minerals in the world and on the cusp of economic developments and data expected today, Wednesday, by the largest American economy Economy in the World, which includes the speech of members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

At exactly 05:57 am GMT, gold futures contracts for December delivery fell 0.40% to trade at $ 1,895.70 per ounce compared to the opening at $ 1,903.20 per ounce, amid the US dollar index rising 0.05% to 93.91 compared to the opening at 93.86.

We have followed up on the disclosure by the China Federation of Logistics and Procurement (CFLP) of the industrial and service sector data for the past month, which indicated that the industrial sector expanded to a value of 51.5 compared to 51.0 in the previous reading of last August, contrary to expectations that indicated an expansion to 51.3, and the expansion of the service sector to Its value was 55.9 compared to 55.2 in August, missing expectations for a narrowing of the breadth to 54.6.

On the other hand, investors are waiting for the US economy to reveal preliminary data on the US labor market with the release of the index of change in private-sector jobs, which may reflect an acceleration of job creation to 650,000 jobs compared to 428,000 jobs in August, hours before The unveiling tomorrow, Friday, of the monthly report on jobs other than agricultural and unemployment rates, in addition to the average hourly income for the month of September.

This comes before we witness the disclosure of the final reading of the gross domestic product index, which may confirm the contraction of the largest economy in the world 31.7%, unchanged from the previous preliminary reading for the second quarter and against a contraction of 5.0% in the previous reading of the last first quarter, as the final reading of the index may confirm The same measured by prices shrinking 2.0%, unchanged from the previous initial reading, and against 1.4% growth in the first quarter.

Down to the disclosure of industrial sector data for the largest industrialized country in the world, with the release of the Chicago PMI reading, which may reflect an expansion to 52.0 versus 51.2 in August, before the US housing market data was released with the release of existing home sales, which may It shows a slowdown in growth to 3.1%, compared to 5.9% last July.

Markets are also looking forward to the members of the Federal Open Market Committee each of Minneapolis Federal Reserve Chairman Neil Kashkari about the Coronavirus and the economy in a hypothetical forum hosted by Wisconsin for manufacturers and trade, and Deputy Governor of the Federal Reserve Michael Bowman, who will deliver a speech under the title "Banks Rise to the Challenge." In community banking at the 21st Century Research and Policy Conference.

Other than that, we have just followed the actions of the first presidential debate between Republican US President Donald Trump and the Democratic candidate for the US presidential elections scheduled for the third of next November, Joe Biden, which took place at Case Western Reserve University and the Cleveland Clinic in Cleveland, Utopia state, We would like to point out that the futures contracts for US stock indices witnessed a decline after the US presidential debate.

Technical analysis

Gold price succeeded in reaching our awaited target at 1901.00 and stabilizes near it, and begins to provide signs of a possible bearish rebound, affected by the strength of the aforementioned level, which makes us prefer to stop neutral until we get a clearer confirmation signal for the next trend, which we will get by breaching the resistance 1901.00 or breaking Support 1890.00.

We point out that breaching the resistance will push the price to achieve additional gains, reaching 1934.86, while breaking the support will press the price to decline again and head towards the pivotal support 1860.90 again.

The expected trading range for today is between 1870.00 support and 1915.00 resistance.

The expected overall trend for today: Neutral.