AUDUSD analysis 14.08.2020

The Australian dollar fluctuated in a narrow range that tends to decline during the Asian session, to witness its retracement to the fifth session in six sessions from its highest since February 6, 2019 against the US dollar, following the testimony of Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe before the Standing Committee for the Economy of the Australian House of Representatives and on the cusp of developments And economic data expected on Friday by the US economy, the largest in the world.

At 04:07 GMT, the Australian dollar against the US dollar fell 0.15% to 0.7138 levels compared to opening levels at 0.7149, after the pair achieved its lowest level during the session's trading at 0.7135, while the pair achieved its highest at 0.7154.

We have followed the Australian Central Bank Governor Philip Lowe's opening speech to the Australian House of Representatives Standing Committee for the Economy via satellite, through which he expressed his desire for the Australian dollar to be low to support growth and employment, with his statement that we cannot say that the Australian dollar is above its value. , Its fair value on a large scale.

Lowe also noted before the Economic Standing Committee that it is unlikely to achieve the conditions for raising interest rates for at least three years, and that monetary policy makers at the Australian Central Bank believe that the best course of action is to continue the current package, explaining that monetary policy makers are looking into the possibility of implementing the program. The normal for bond purchases and they did not rule out a separate bond buying program, or even modifications to the mid-March package.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting the US economy to unveil a reading of retail sales, which represents about half of consumer spending, which represents more than two-thirds of the United States' GDP, and which may reflect slowing growth to 2.0% compared to 7.5% in June, as may The core reading of the same index shows growth slowed to 1.3%, from 7.3% in June.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the preliminary reading of the single labor cost index, which reflects an acceleration of growth to 6.5% compared to 5.1% in the first quarter, while the preliminary reading of the productivity of non-agricultural sectors may show a 1.5% rise against a 0.9% decline, and before we witness the disclosure of industrial sector data. For the largest industrialized country in the world, with the release of the Industrial Production Index, which may reflect a slowdown in growth to 3.1%, compared to 5.4% in June.

This coincides with the release of the energy utilization rate index reading, which may indicate an acceleration of growth to 70.3% compared to 68.6% in June, leading to the disclosure of the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, which may show a contraction of the expansion to a value of 72.0 compared to 72.5 in July. In July, in conjunction with the final reading of the wholesale stocks index showed the decline narrowed to 1.1% from 2.3% in May.

Technical analysis

The Australian dollar against the US dollar is quietly crawling to the downside, gradually moving away from the 50 EMA, to keep the bearish trend scenario valid and effective for the upcoming period, which targets 0.7065 then 0.7000 mainly, with a reminder that the continuation of the expected decline depends on stability below 0.7170.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.7070 support and 0.7180 resistance

The expected general trend for today: Bearish