EURUSD analysis 14.08.2020

The single currency, the euro, fluctuated in a narrow range that tends to decline during the Asian session, to witness its rebound to the third session in seven sessions from the lowest since May 15, 2018, against the US dollar on the cusp of economic developments and data expected today, Friday by the economies of the euro area and the US economy, the largest economy In the world.

At exactly 05:17 AM GMT, the euro pair fell against the US dollar by 0.01% to 1.1813 levels, compared to opening levels at 1.1814, after the pair achieved its lowest level during the session's trading at 1.1821, while it achieved its highest at 1.1821.

Markets are looking for France, the second-largest economy in the euro area, to disclose inflation data, with the final reading of the consumer price index, which may confirm a growth of 0.4% in July, compared to a growth of 0.1% last June, and this comes before we are seen by other economies. The region The release of the seasonally adjusted trade balance reading, which may reflect a widening surplus to an amount of 18.0 billion euros, compared to 8.0 billion last May.

This comes in conjunction with the disclosure of the preliminary seasonally adjusted reading of the GDP index for the euro area as a whole, which may reflect the stability of the contraction at 12.1% without change from the first quarter, as the annual reading of the index may indicate the stability of the deflation at 15.5%, and with the preliminary reading of the change in the index. Employment the decline widened to 1.7%, from 0.2% in the first quarter.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting the US economy to unveil a reading of retail sales, which represents about half of consumer spending, which represents more than two-thirds of the United States' GDP, and which may reflect slowing growth to 2.0% compared to 7.5% in June, as may The core reading of the same index shows growth slowed to 1.3%, from 7.3% in June.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the preliminary reading of the single labor cost index, which reflects an acceleration of growth to 6.5% compared to 5.1% in the first quarter, while the preliminary reading of the productivity of non-agricultural sectors may show a 1.5% rise against a 0.9% decline, and before we witness the disclosure of industrial sector data. For the largest industrialized country in the world, with the release of the Industrial Production Index, which may reflect a slowdown in growth to 3.1%, compared to 5.4% in June.

This coincides with the release of the energy utilization rate index reading, which may indicate an acceleration of growth to 70.3% compared to 68.6% in June, leading to the disclosure of the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, which may show a contraction of the expansion to a value of 72.0 compared to 72.5 in July. Last July, in conjunction with the final reading of the wholesale inventories index showed the decline narrowed to 1.1% from 2.3% in May.

Technical analysis

The euro versus the dollar is trading at the moving average 50 now, and we note that the stochastic indicator has rid of its negative momentum to reach oversold areas, waiting for the price to stimulate the resumption of the main bullish trend, whose next target is at 1.1908.

From here, the bullish trend scenario will remain valid and effective for the coming period, with a reminder that the continuation of the bullish wave depends on stability above 1.1737, as breaking it will pressure the price to make an additional downside correction, whose next target will reach 1.1632.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.1737 support and 1.1908 resistance.

The expected general trend for today: Bullish.