AUDUSD analysis 31.07.2020

The Australian dollar rose during the Asian session to witness its highest since February 6, 2019 against the US dollar after the developments and economic data that we followed about the Australian economy and the Chinese economy is the largest trading partner of Australia and before the economic developments and data expected on Friday by the American economy the largest economy in the world.

At exactly 02:47 am GMT, the Australian dollar pair rose against the US dollar 0.19% to 0.7209 levels compared to the opening levels at 0.7194, after the pair achieved its highest level in a year and a half at 0.7224, while the pair achieved its lowest during the trading session at 0.7184.

We have followed on from the Australian economy the release of the producer price index, which is an initial indicator of inflationary pressures, which showed a contraction of 1.2% against a growth of 0.2% in the first quarter, as the annual reading of the same index showed a contraction of 0.4% compared to the previous reading and expectations of a growth of 1.3%, and this came before To see the release of the private sector credit index, which showed that the decline has widened to 0.2% compared to the May reading and expectations at 0.1%.

This came before we saw the CFLP disclose the readings of the Industrial and Service Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which reported that the industrial sector expanded to 51.1 compared to 50.9 in June, contrary to expectations that the expansion will decrease to 50.8, while the services sector will expand. Down to 54.2 versus 54.4 in June, contrary to expectations that the expansion of shrinkage to 54.5.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting by the US economy the disclosure of personal spending and income data, which may reflect the slowdown in personal spending growth to 5.3% compared to 8.2% last May, and the decline in personal income decreased to 0.8% compared to 4.2% in May. , While a reading of the core personal consumption expenditures index may show accelerated growth to 0.2% versus 0.1% in May.

This also comes in conjunction with the disclosure of the unit cost index reading, which may reflect a slowdown in growth to 0.6% compared to 0.8% in the first quarter, and before we witness the disclosure of industrial sector data for the largest industrial country in the world with the release of the Chicago PMI reading, which It may reflect a contraction of the contraction to 44.0 compared to 36.6 last June.

To reveal the final reading of the University of Michigan's index of consumer confidence, which may show a shrinkage in amplitude to 72.9 compared to 73.2 in the first reading prior to the current month and against expansion at 78.1 in June, with the release of the consumer expectations reading for July for one year to come and five years to come.

Technical analysis

The Australian dollar versus the US dollar traded strongly up after testing the support of the bullish channel yesterday, to succeed in achieving our first awaited target at 0.7200, which supports the continuation of the bullish scenario on the intraday and short term, noting that our next target reaches 0.7290.

Therefore, we will continue to favor the bullish trend for the next period unless 0.7120 then 0.7065 levels are broken and stability below it, noting that SMA 50 continues to support the suggested bullish wave.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.7150 support and 0.7290 resistance

Expected trend for today: bullish