EURUSD analysis 31.07.2020

The single currency, the euro, rose during the Asian session to witness its highest level since May 15, 2018, and to prepare for the sixth weekly gains and its third monthly gains in a row against the US dollar before the developments and economic data expected on Friday by the economies of the euro area and the American economy, the largest economy in the world.

At 05:27 am GMT, the euro pair rose against the US dollar by 0.39% to 1.1893 levels, compared to the opening levels at 1.1847 after the pair achieved its highest level in more than two years at 1.1905, while it achieved its lowest during the trading session at 1.1837 .

The markets are looking to the French economy, the second largest in the region, to reveal the growth data for the second quarter with the release of the initial reading of the GDP index, which may reflect the widening contraction to 15.2% compared to 5.3% in the first quarter last, and that comes, before we witnessed by Germany The largest economy in the euro area released the retail sales index, which may reflect a 3.0% decline compared to a rise of 13.9% last May.

In the same context, the annual reading of the retail sales index for Germany may show a slowdown in growth to 3.0% compared to 3.8% in May, before we witness from France the preliminary reading of the consumer price index, which may indicate a 0.1% contraction versus 0.1% growth in May May, in conjunction with the disclosure of the consumer spending reading also for France, which may show a slowdown in growth to 6.9% compared to 36.6% in May.

To reveal the growth data for the fourth largest economy in the euro area, Spain, with the release of the initial reading of the GDP index, which may reflect the widening contraction to 16.0% compared to 5.2% growth in the first quarter, before we witness the release of the same index reading for Italy, the third largest economy in the region, which Shrinkage might also show up to 15.0% compared to 5.3% in the first quarter.

This comes before we witness the disclosure of the growth and inflation data for the euro area as a whole with the release of the initial reading of the GDP index, which may reflect the widening of the contraction to 12.0% compared to 3.6% in the first quarter, and the annual reading of the consumer price index showed that the growth stabilized at 0.3% during July July, as the core annual reading of the same indicator may show, stability at 0.8%.

This also comes in conjunction with the release of the initial reading of the consumer price index for Italy, which may explain the stability of growth at 0.1% during June, before we also witness about Italy revealing a seasonally adjusted reading of the retail sales index, which may explain the slowdown in the pace of growth to 9.8% against 24.3% in May, while the yearly non-seasonally adjusted reading of the same indicator may show a decline in the decline to 6.8%, compared to 10.5% in May.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting by the US economy the disclosure of personal spending and income data, which may reflect the slowdown in personal spending growth to 5.3% compared to 8.2% last May, and the decline in personal income decreased to 0.8% compared to 4.2% in May. , While a reading of the core personal consumption expenditures index may show accelerated growth to 0.2% versus 0.1% in May.

This also comes in conjunction with the disclosure of the unit cost index reading, which may reflect a slowdown in growth to 0.6% compared to 0.8% in the first quarter, and before we witness the disclosure of industrial sector data for the largest industrial country in the world with the release of the Chicago PMI reading, which It may reflect a contraction of the contraction to 44.0 compared to 36.6 last June.

To reveal the final reading of the University of Michigan's index of consumer confidence, which may show a shrinkage in amplitude to 72.9 compared to 73.2 in the first reading prior to the current month and against expansion at 78.1 in June, with the release of the consumer expectations reading for July for one year to come and five years to come.

Technical analysis

The pair of the euro against the dollar presented positive trades yesterday, which exceeded our first target of 1.1815 and approached the second at 1.1890, as the day begins with a further rise to support the chances of the continuation of the bullish trend in the intraday and short term, noting that exceeding the last level will push the price to 1.1995 as the next main station.

Consequently, we await further gains during the upcoming sessions, keeping in mind that the continuation of the ascending wave requires stability above 1.1760.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.1800 support and 1.1980 resistance

Expected trend for today: bullish.