EURUSD analysis 30.07.2020

The single currency fluctuated the euro in a narrow range slanting back down during the Asian session to witness its bounce for the second session from its top since September 26, 2018 against the US dollar before the developments and economic data expected today Thursday by the economies of the euro area and the US economy, which includes the disclosure of GDP data The aggregate of the largest Eurozone economies is Germany and the largest in the world is the United States of America.

At exactly 04:59 AM GMT, the euro against the US dollar fell 0.17% to 1.1772 levels, compared to the opening levels at 1.1792, after the pair achieved its lowest level during the trading session at 1.1766, while it achieved the highest at 1.1793.

The markets are looking to the largest euro zone economies, Germany, to disclose inflation data with the release of the initial reading of the consumer price index, which may reflect a 0.2% contraction versus 0.6% growth last June, before we witness by Spain, the fourth largest economy in the region, also On the annual reading of the index itself, which may reflect the stability of the contraction at 0.3%, little changed from what it was in June.

This comes before we also witnessed by Germany the release of the unemployment rate, which may reflect an increase to 6.5% compared to 6.4% in June, in conjunction with the release of the unemployment change index also for Germany, which may show an increase of 42 thousand compared to a rise of 69 thousand in In June, before we witnessed by Italy, the third largest economy in the euro area, the unemployment rate reading was released, which may explain an increase to 8.5% compared to 7.8% in June.

To reveal the seasonally adjusted initial reading of Germany’s GDP index, which may show the contraction widening to 9.0% versus 2.2% in the first quarter, as the annual seasonally adjusted reading of the same index may also show the widening of the contraction to 10.9% versus 1.9%, in conjunction with The European Central Bank revealed its monthly bulletin and before it showed a reading of unemployment rates for the eurozone economies as a whole, up to 7.7% compared to 7.4%.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting by the US economy the disclosure of the initial reading of the GDP of the United States for the second quarter, which may show the contraction of the largest economy in the world to 34.5% compared to 5.0% in the first quarter, while the initial reading may reflect the GDP Measured by prices for the last quarter, holding at zero levels against 1.4% growth in the first quarter.

This comes in conjunction with the issuance of the aid claims index for the last week on July 25, which may reflect an increase of 24 thousand requests to 1,440 thousand applications compared to 1,416 thousand requests in the previous reading, as the reading of the continuous benefit applications for the past week may appear on 18 of this The month increased by 3 thousand requests to 16,200 thousand requests compared to 16,197 thousand requests in the previous reading.

Other than that, we have just followed the expiry of the FOMC meeting July 28-29, during which the Federal Reserve's monetary policy makers kept interest rates at between zero and 0.25%, and we also followed the Fed’s confirmation of Jerome Powell at his press conference after the meeting on the Fed’s commitment to using all of its tools to support recovery and minimize the negative repercussions of the Corona pandemic.

Technical analysis

The euro against the dollar offered more positive trading yesterday evening, to approach our waited target at 1.1815, and return to focus on the support of the bullish intraday channel, waiting for a positive momentum to contribute to pushing the price to continue the main bullish trend, whose next target is located at 1.1890.

From here, we continue to favor the bullish trend for the upcoming period supported by the EMA50, which continues to carry the price from below, noting that a break of 1.1715 will stop the current rise and press the price to start a descending corrective wave on the intraday basis.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.1700 support and 1.1890 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bullish.