JPYUSD analysis 30.07.2020

The fluctuation of the US dollar in a narrow range tilted to the upside during the Asian session, to witness its bounce for the second session from the lowest since March 13 against the Japanese yen, following the developments and economic data that it had reported on the Japanese economy and on the cusp of developments and economic data expected on Thursday by the US economy The largest economy in the world.

At 05:47 am GMT, the US dollar pair rose against the Japanese yen by 0.34% to 105.28 levels compared to the opening levels at 104.92 after the pair achieved its highest level during the trading session at 105.29, while achieving the lowest at 104.91.

We have followed on from the Japanese economy, the second largest economy in Asia and the third largest in the world, the release of the seasonally adjusted reading of the retail sales index, which showed an acceleration of growth by 13.1% compared to 2.1% last May, outperforming the expectations that indicated the acceleration of growth to 7.1%, while The annual reading of the same index showed that the decline decreased to 1.2% compared to 12.5% ​​in May, also exceeding expectations that indicated a decrease in the decline to 6.0%.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting by the US economy the disclosure of the initial reading of the GDP of the United States for the second quarter, which may show the contraction of the largest economy in the world to 34.5% compared to 5.0% in the first quarter, while the initial reading may reflect the GDP Measured by prices for the last quarter, holding at zero levels against 1.4% growth in the first quarter.

This comes in conjunction with the issuance of the aid claims index for the last week on July 25, which may reflect an increase of 24 thousand requests to 1,440 thousand applications compared to 1,416 thousand requests in the previous reading, as the reading of the continuous benefit applications for the past week may appear on 18 of this The month increased by 3 thousand requests to 16,200 thousand requests compared to 16,197 thousand requests in the previous reading.

Other than that, we have just followed the expiry of the FOMC meeting July 28-29, during which the Federal Reserve's monetary policymakers kept interest rates at between zero and 0.25%, and we also followed the Fed’s confirmation of Jerome Powell at his press conference after the meeting on the Fed’s commitment to using all of its tools to support recovery and minimize the negative repercussions of the Corona pandemic.

Technical analysis

The dollar against the yen trades stable below 105.20, to keep the downside scenario valid and active in the intraday and short term, supported by the negative pressure formed by the EMA50, waiting for the resumption of the downside wave targeting mainly 103.65.

We remind you that the continuation of the expected decline requires stability below 105.20, as its breach will push the price for intraday gains that start at 106.00 then 106.44 before any new negative attempt.

The expected trading range for today is between 104.20 support and 105.70 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bearish.