EURUSD analysis 17.07.2020

The euro currency fluctuated in a narrow range tilted to the upside during the Asian session to prepare for its fourth consecutive weekly gains against the US dollar before the economic developments and data expected on Friday by the euro area economies, which include the meeting of the European Union leaders and before the developments and economic data expected by The American economy is the largest economy in the world.

At 05:20 am GMT, the euro pair rose against the US dollar by 0.01% to 1.1385 levels, compared to the opening levels at 1.1384 after the pair achieved its highest level during the trading session at 1.1394, while achieving the lowest at 1.1378.

The markets are looking ahead to the eurozone economies to disclose inflation data with the release of the annual final reading of the consumer price index, which may confirm the growth of 0.3%, little changed from the initial reading of the past month and compared to 0.1% growth last May, as the annual reading may confirm The intrinsic index of the same index also showed a growth of 0.8%, little changed from the initial reading and a growth of 0.9% in May.

This comes hours after the European Central Bank meeting ended on Thursday, during which the monetary policy makers of the European Central kept short-term reference interest rates at zero levels, in addition to fixing the marginal lending rate at 0.25% and maintaining the interest rate on negative deposits -0.50% Which came in line with expectations.

Yesterday, we also followed the European Central’s assertion that it is pushing ahead with its bond-buying program to combat the economic repercussions of the Coronavirus, known as “PEPP,” which is estimated at 1,350 billion euros until the end of the first half of next year at least 2021 and that it is ready to expand its purchases until it decides that a crisis Corona pandemic has been eliminated.

The European Central stated that it also continues in its program to buy assets "APP" by 20 billion euros per month alongside with temporary purchases of 120 billion euros until the end of 2020, explaining that the purchases continue in a flexible manner and across different asset classes, as part of his work to provide support For the economies of the euro area and achieving the inflation target, which is expected to decrease broadly in the coming months before rising at the beginning of 2021.

In the same vein, we also followed yesterday, the European Central Governor Christine Lagarde expressed during the press conference after the meeting the importance of the eurozone members to make more efforts to support the European economy, which was strongly affected by the repercussions of the Corona pandemic, with her reporting that the European Central has slowed PEPP program purchases are a little slow, due to market stability.

Lagarde reported that the European Central does not see a reason for changing zero interest levels at the moment and that it is assumed that the funding expected by the European Union will be a mixture of loans and grants, and that comes hours before the European Union leaders meeting later on Friday, which is expected to take place Discuss the details of the recovery fund, which is estimated at 750 billion euros.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting the release of the housing market data by the US economy, with the release of both the beginning construction index and the building permit index, and amid expectations that the reading of building permits will reflect an increase to about 1.17 million permits compared to about 0.97 million permits in May. , And the reading of homes that were built could also reflect an increase to about 1.30 million homes compared to about 1.22 million homes in May.

This comes before we witness the disclosure of the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan index of consumer confidence, which may show a widening to 79.0 compared to 78.1 in the previous reading last June, otherwise, according to the latest figures issued by the World Health Organization, the number of cases infected with Coronavirus has increased. For nearly 13.38 million, 580,045 people were killed in 216 countries.

Technical analysis

The euro against the dollar pair resumed its negative trading after testing the 1.1420 level in the previous sessions, awaiting a further decline to head towards 1.1270, which is our next main goal, to continue to suggest the bearish trend over the intraday basis.

We point out that the continuation of the descending wave depends on holding below 1.1420, as its breach will push the price to continue the main bullish trend whose next target is located at 1.1500.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.1270 support and 1.1460 resistance

Expected trend for today: bearish