AUDUSD analysis 16.07.2020

The Australian dollar fluctuated in a narrow range tilted toward the backdrop during the Asian session, to witness its bounce for the second session from the top since June 10, when it tested its highest since July 19, 2019, against the US dollar, following the developments and economic data that it followed on the Australian economy and on The Chinese economy is Australia's largest trading partner and on the cusp of developments and economic data expected on Thursday by the US economy.

At exactly 02:09 AM GMT, the Australian dollar pair declined against the US dollar 0.23% to 0.6992 levels compared to the opening levels at 0.7008, after the pair achieved its lowest level during the trading session at 0.6989, while the pair achieved its highest at 0.7016.

We have followed on from the Australian economy the publication of the Weissbach Consumer Confidence Index, which showed a slowdown in growth to 3.2% compared to 3.3% last June, and this came before the disclosure of labor market data with the release of the unemployment rates, which showed an increase to 7.4% compared to 7.1 In May, worse than expectations, which indicated an increase to 7.2%, in conjunction with a reading of change in employment showed a rise of 210.8 thousand compared to a decline of 264.1 thousand, outperforming expectations that indicated a rise of 106.0 thousand.

Other than that, we have followed the National Bureau of Statistics revealed to China the seasonally adjusted reading of GDP, which showed growth of 11.5% against a contraction of 9.8% during the first quarter, surpassing expectations that indicated growth of 9.6%, as the annual reading of the same index showed growth of 3.2% against A contraction of 6.8% in the prior annual reading for the first quarter, also beating expectations for 2.2% growth.

We also followed up on the Chinese economy to reveal the annual reading of the retail sales index, which reflected the shrinkage of the decline to 1.8% compared to 2.8% last May, worse than the expectations that indicated a growth of 0.5%, while the annual reading of the index of industrial production showed that the growth accelerated to 4.8% compatible With expectations compared to 4.4% in May, the reading of the unemployment rate index showed a decline to 5.7%, also in line with expectations, compared to 5.9% in May.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting by the US economy, the largest economy in the world, to reveal a retail sales reading that represents about half of consumer spending, which represents more than two-thirds of the gross domestic product of the United States, which may reflect slowing growth to 5.0% compared to 17.7% in May. May, as the core reading of the same indicator, may show, growth slowed to 5.0% compared to 12.4% in May.

This comes in conjunction with the issuance of the aid claims index for the last week on July 11, which may reflect a decline of 64 thousand requests to 1,250 thousand applications compared to 1,314 thousand requests in the previous reading, as the reading of the continuous benefit applications for the past week may appear on the fourth of this Month decreased by 462 thousand requests to 17,600 thousand requests compared to 18,062 thousand requests in the previous reading.

This also comes in conjunction with the disclosure by the largest industrialized country in the world of industrial sector data with the release of the Philadelphia Industrial Index reading, which may reflect the widening of the contraction to 20.0 compared to 27.5 in June, before we witness the release of the final reading of the wholesale inventory index That may show the decline widening to 2.3%, compared to 1.3% last April.

Up to the disclosure of housing market data with the release of the housing index reading by the National Association of Home Builders, which may reflect a rise to $ 60 compared to 58 in May, before we witness the speech of a member of the Federal Open Market Committee and President of the New York Federal Reserve Bank John Williams At an online seminar hosted by the Financial Research Advisory Committee.

Technical analysis

The Australian dollar versus the US dollar presented positive trades yesterday, to approach our expected target at 0.7064, and return to volatility near the EMA50 now, as it is affected by the negativity of the stochastic indicator that gets rid of its negative intention to approach the oversold areas in the sale, waiting for the price stimulus to resume positive trades To overcome the mentioned level and open the way for more gains in the short term.

From here, we continue to suggest the bullish trend for the next period unless 0.6890 level is broken and stability below it.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6940 support and 0.7064 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bullish.