Gold analysis 16.07.2020

The single currency fluctuated the euro in a narrow range slanting back down during the Asian session to witness its bounce for the second session from the top since March 10 against the US dollar, on the cusp of developments and economic data expected today by the economies of the euro zone and the US economy, which includes the activities of the bank meeting The European Central and the upcoming press conference of the European Central Governorate Christine Lagarde.

At 05:05 am GMT, the euro against the US dollar fell 0.04% to 1.1407 levels, compared to the opening levels at 1.1412, after the pair achieved its lowest level during the trading session at 1.1400, while achieving the highest at 1.1419

The markets are looking for France, the euro zone's second-largest economy, to disclose inflation data with the final reading of the consumer price index, which may confirm a 0.1% contraction in June and 0.1% growth last May, and that comes before we see Italy the third largest The economies of the region released the May Trade Balance reading.

Up to the disclosure of the seasonally adjusted reading of the trade balance index for the eurozone economies, which may reflect the widening of the surplus to 1.2 billion euros against 5.0 billion euros last April, and this comes before we witness the activities of the European Central Council amid expectations to keep interest rates at Zero levels and stabilization of the marginal lending rate at 0.25% in addition to maintaining the negative deposit interest rate -0.50%.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting by the US economy the disclosure of retail sales, which represents about half of consumer spending, which represents more than two-thirds of the gross domestic product of the United States, which may reflect slowing growth to 5.0% compared to 17.7% in May, as may A substantial reading of the same indicator shows growth slowed to 5.0% compared to 12.4% in May.

This comes in conjunction with the issuance of the aid claims index for the last week on July 11, which may reflect a decline of 64 thousand requests to 1,250 thousand applications compared to 1,314 thousand requests in the previous reading, as the reading of the continuous benefit applications for the past week may appear on the fourth of this Month decreased by 462 thousand requests to 17,600 thousand requests compared to 18,062 thousand requests in the previous reading.

This also comes in conjunction with the disclosure by the largest industrialized country in the world of industrial sector data with the release of the Philadelphia Industrial Index reading, which may reflect the widening of the contraction to 20.0 compared to 27.5 in June, before we witness the release of the final reading of the wholesale inventory index That may show the decline widening to 2.3% versus 1.3% in April.

Up to the disclosure of housing market data with the release of the housing index reading by the National Association of Home Builders, which may reflect a rise to $ 60 compared to 58 in May, before we witness the speech of a member of the Federal Open Market Committee and President of the New York Federal Reserve Bank John Williams At an online seminar hosted by the Financial Research Advisory Committee.

Technical analysis

The EURUSD pair was unable to hold long above the 1.1420 level, to trade negatively and settle below this level, which puts the price under expected negative pressure for the coming period, to start forming a descending wave, we expect to target the 1.1270 level mainly.

Therefore, the bearish bias will be expected for today, taking into consideration that breaching 1.1420 and holding above it will stop the suggested decline and lead the price to resume the main bullish trend again.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.1300 support and 1.1480 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bearish.