Gold analysis 16.07.2020

Gold Analysis 16-07-2020

Gold price futures fluctuated in a narrow range tilted backward to witness their bounce for the third session in seven sessions from the highest since September 19, 2011, amid the US dollar index rebounded for the second session from the lowest since June 10, when it tested the lowest since On the tenth of March, according to the inverse relationship between them, following the economic developments and data that were followed by the Chinese economy, the largest consumer of metals globally, and on the cusp of developments and economic data expected today, Thursday, by the US economy, the largest economy in the world.

At exactly 04:02 AM GMT, gold price futures for next August delivery fell 0.03% to trade at $ 1,812.50 an ounce compared to the opening at $ 1,813.10 per ounce, knowing that the contracts started the trading session on a falling price gap after it concluded trades Yesterday at $ 1,813.80 an ounce, with the US dollar index rising 0.11% to 96.11 compared to the opening at 96.00.

We have followed the National Bureau of Statistics revealed to China the seasonally adjusted reading of GDP, which showed the growth of the largest economies of Asia and the second largest economy in the world 11.5% compared to a contraction of 9.8% during the first quarter, surpassing expectations that indicated growth of 9.6%, as indicated by the annual reading The same index had a growth of 3.2% compared to a contraction of 6.8% in the previous one for the first quarter, also outperforming the forecasts for a growth of 2.2%.

We also followed up on the Chinese economy to reveal the annual reading of the retail sales index, which reflected the shrinkage of the decline to 1.8% compared to 2.8% last May, worse than the expectations that indicated a growth of 0.5%, while the annual reading of the index of industrial production showed that the growth accelerated to 4.8% compatible With expectations compared to 4.4% in May, the reading of the unemployment rate index showed a decline to 5.7%, also in line with expectations, compared to 5.9% in May.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting by the US economy the disclosure of retail sales, which represents about half of consumer spending, which represents more than two-thirds of the gross domestic product of the United States, which may reflect slowing growth to 5.0% compared to 17.7% in May, as may A substantial reading of the same indicator shows growth slowed to 5.0% compared to 12.4% in May.

This comes in conjunction with the issuance of the aid claims index for the last week on July 11, which may reflect a decline of 64 thousand requests to 1,250 thousand applications compared to 1,314 thousand requests in the previous reading, as the reading of the continuous benefit applications for the past week may appear on the fourth of this Month decreased by 462 thousand requests to 17,600 thousand requests compared to 18,062 thousand requests in the previous reading.

This also comes in conjunction with the disclosure by the largest industrialized country in the world of industrial sector data with the release of the Philadelphia Industrial Index reading, which may reflect the widening of the contraction to 20.0 compared to 27.5 in June, before we witness the release of the final reading of the wholesale inventory index That may show the decline widening to 2.3%, compared to 1.3% last April.

Up to the disclosure of housing market data with the release of the housing index reading by the National Association of Home Builders, which may reflect a rise to $ 60 compared to 58 in May, before we witness the speech of a member of the Federal Open Market Committee and President of the New York Federal Reserve Bank John Williams At an online seminar hosted by the Financial Research Advisory Committee.

Technical analysis

Gold price continues attempts to overcome the resistance of the bullish flag that appears in the image, and gets continuous positive support from the EMA50, to keep the bullish trend scenario active and effective for the coming period, which is organized inside the bullish channels, noting that our expected targets start at 1850.00 then 1865.00.

On the other hand, we should note that breaching the 1785.00 level will stop the suggested rise and put pressure on the price to start a descending correction wave.

The expected trading range for today is between 1795.00 support and 1840.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bullish.