EURUSD analysis 09.07.2020

The single currency, the euro, rose during the Asian session to witness its highest since June 11 against the US dollar on the threshold of economic developments and data expected on Thursday by the Eurozone economies, which include Eurogroup meetings via satellites in Brussels and on the cusp of developments and economic data expected from the economy The American is the largest economy in the world.

At 05:33 am GMT, the euro pair rose against the US dollar by 0.33% to 1.1367 levels, compared to the opening levels at 1.1330 after the pair achieved its highest level in a month at 1.1371, while achieving the lowest during the trading session at 1.1328.

Markets are looking for Germany, the largest economy in the eurozone, to disclose the reading of the current account index for the month of May, in conjunction with the disclosure of the reading of the trade balance index also for Germany, which may show a widening of the surplus to 6.6 billion euros against 3.2 billion euros in April. The past, and amid expectations, showed a seasonally adjusted reading of exports and imports up during May.

This comes in conjunction with the meetings of the Eurogroup via satellite, which is attended by the finance ministers of the member states in the region, the Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs and the European Central Bank, which discusses many financial issues such as the mechanisms to support the euro and government financing, led by the European Union recovery package of the repercussions Negative to the outbreak of coronavirus.

It is noteworthy that the European Central Governor Christine Lagarde praised yesterday the measures taken by the European Central, indicating that it showed a great deal of efficiency and effectiveness, adding that these measures will provide him with some time to assess the economic data of the euro area, while stating that the economic recovery will be restricted and uncertain and that some countries in the region The euro will recover faster than others and the financial markets have calmed down noticeably for now.

In another context, we have also followed up yesterday, the European Union's chief negotiator for Britain’s exit from the European Union, Michel Barnier, expressed that the European Union held good negotiations with the British side last Tuesday regarding the free trade agreement between the two sides, while German Chancellor Angela Merkel confirmed yesterday that the union The European needs to unite around the recovery package while expressing its expectations for good cooperation between European partners.

Other than that, we followed last Tuesday, European Union Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan expressed the fact that Brussels would take decisive measures against Washington in the event that the United States did not show a willingness to settle the long-standing dispute over support to the aircraft industry, with his statement that America had rejected Europe's proposals to settle the dispute Al-Qa’im and he hopes that the World Trade Organization will issue its ruling as soon as possible.

It is noteworthy that the dispute between the two parties about the support provided to the aircraft industry, especially for the European Airbus and Boeing Company, which erupted since 2004, and the WTO has already given Washington the right to impose duties on European goods worth $ 7.5 billion in response to the support provided by Europe to Airbus, and it is expected By September, the organization will pass judgment on the response that Europe can take about America's support for Boeing.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting by the American economy the release of the index of subsidy requests for the last week on the fourth of July, which may reflect a decline of 52 thousand requests to 1,375 thousand applications compared to 1,427 thousand requests in the previous reading, as may appear reading subsidy applications Continuing for the last week on the 27th of June, down by 340 thousand requests to 18,950 thousand requests compared to 19,290 thousand requests.

This comes before we witness the issuance of the final reading of the wholesale stocks index, which may confirm a decline of 1.2%, unchanged from the initial reading for the month of May, and against a rise of 0.3% last April, and in the shadow of the market's assessment of the increasing number of cases infected with the Coronavirus in America, This prompted many states to propose the restoration of closures, while White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow yesterday stressed that the economy would not be closed again.

Technical analysis

The euro against the dollar pair begins trading today with a new positive to penetrate the level of 1.1340 and is trying to hold above it, which supports the continuation of our expectations for an effective trend in the immediate and short term, paving the way for achieving more gains during the upcoming sessions, pending the trend towards 1.1420, which represents our next major station.

Consequently, the positive scenario will remain valid and active for today, supported by the EMA50, keeping in mind that stability above 1.1270 is a key condition for the suggested continuation.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.1270 support and 1.1440 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bullish.