EURUSD analysis 25.06.2020

The single currency fluctuated the euro in a narrow range tilted to the upside during the Asian session to witness its bounce back for the third session in four sessions from the lowest since June 3 against the US dollar on the cusp of developments and economic data expected today Thursday by the economies of the euro area and the US economy and amid market pricing The possibility of a trade war between the United States of America and the European Union.

At 05:40 am GMT, the euro pair rose against the US dollar by 0.01% to 1.1252 levels, compared to the opening levels at 1.1251 after the pair achieved its highest level during the trading session at 1.1260, while achieving the lowest at 1.1240.

Markets are looking for Germany, the largest economy in the eurozone, to issue a statistical reading of the GFK consumer confidence index, which may reflect the contraction in contraction to 11.7 compared to 18.9 last May, before we witness the European Central Bank revealed the minutes of its last meeting, which decided to stay on prices Interest at zero levels and the increase in the size of the Emergency Bond Purchase Package (PEPP) by 100 billion euros to 1.35 trillion euros.

Otherwise, we followed yesterday. The chief European Union negotiator told Britain’s exit file, Michel Barnier, that the imposition of a trade agreement between Brussels and London after Britain’s exit from the union is still in place, in the event that Britain clearly shows its willingness to reach the agreement, explaining that the current crisis It does not lie in the available time or timing, but rather in the essence of the agreement as London continues to withdraw from its previous obligations.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting by the US economy the disclosure of the GDP reading, which may confirm the contraction of the largest economy in the world 5.0%, little changed from the previous initial reading for the first quarter and against a growth of 2.1% in the previous reading for the fourth quarter last, as may A reading of the same index, measured in prices, confirms a growth of 1.4%, little change from the previous initial reading, and a growth of 1.3% in the fourth quarter.

This comes in conjunction with the disclosure of the reading of the durable goods orders index, which represents about half of consumer spending, which represents more than two-thirds of the gross domestic product in the United States of America, which may reflect a rise of 10.3% compared to a decline of 17.7% last April, when it reflected the largest decline In decades, the core reading of the same index may also show a 2.1% increase compared to a 7.7% decline in April.

This also comes in conjunction with the release of the aid claims index for the last week on June 20, which may reflect a decline of 188 thousand requests to 1,320 thousand applications compared to 1,508 thousand requests in the previous reading, as reading of the continuing benefit requests for the past week may appear in 13 From this month, a decrease of 576 thousand requests to 19,968 thousand requests, compared to 20,544 thousand requests.

Also, in conjunction with the release of the merchandise trade balance index, which may explain the deficit shrinking to $ 68.0 billion compared to $ 69.7 billion in April, and the release of the initial reading of the Wholesale Stocks Index, which may reflect the acceleration of growth to 0.4% compared to 0.3% in April , To the Federal Reserve's disclosure of test scores for the solvency and stress tests of the 34 largest banks in the United States of America.

Other than that, we followed yesterday the report that touched upon the fact that the White House is considering imposing new customs duties on exports worth $ 3.1 billion from France, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom, and that the American trade representative wants to impose new tariffs and increase the fees on European products that his country imports from the European Union And this came in conjunction with the Federation's discussion of whether to close the door to American travelers this summer due to the Corona outbreak in America.

Technical analysis

The euro against the dollar achieved a break of the level of 1.1270 and closed the daily candle below it, which stops the positive scenario suggested in our recent reports and returns the price to the corrective correctional path once again, on its way to visit the 1.1175 level initially.

Consequently, a bearish bias will be likely for today unless the price breaks through 1.1270 and holds above it, noting that breaching the target level will extend the descending wave to reach 1.1100 as the next station.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.1150 support and 1.1320 resistance

Expected trend for today: bearish