JPYUSD analysis 25.06.2020

The US dollar fluctuated in a narrow range tilted to the upside during the Asian session, to witness its rebound to the third session from the lowest since May 7 against the Japanese yen, following the developments and economic data that it had reported on the Japanese economy and on the cusp of developments and economic data expected Thursday by the largest US economy Economy of the world.

At exactly 06:16 am GMT, the US dollar pair rose against the Japanese yen by 0.13% to 107.18 levels compared to the opening levels at 107.04 after the pair achieved its highest level during the trading session at 107.26, while achieving the lowest at 106.99.

We have followed about the Japanese economy, the second-largest economy in Asia, the third-largest economy in the world and the third-largest industrialized country globally, the disclosure of industrial sector data with the release of the index of the overall industrial activities, which showed the widening of the decline to 6.4% compared to 3.4%, which was modified from a decline of 3.8% in Last March, beating the forecasts for a 6.5% decline.

Otherwise, yesterday we followed the warning of the governor of the Japanese capital, Tokyo, from the high numbers of people infected with the Coronavirus again, with his discussion that the gatherings that occur in the workplace are a current crisis that may increase the rise in infections, and this came hours after the Japanese government updated its assessment of the Japanese economy for the first Once since the beginning of 2018, during which it reported that the economy is in a generally dangerous situation.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting by the US economy the disclosure of the GDP reading, which may confirm the contraction of the largest economy in the world 5.0%, little changed from the previous initial reading for the first quarter and against a growth of 2.1% in the previous reading for the fourth quarter last, as may A reading of the same index, measured in prices, confirms a growth of 1.4%, little change from the previous initial reading, and a growth of 1.3% in the fourth quarter.

This comes in conjunction with the disclosure of the reading of the durable goods orders index, which represents about half of consumer spending, which represents more than two-thirds of the gross domestic product in the United States of America, which may reflect a rise of 10.3% compared to a decline of 17.7% last April when it reflected the largest decline In decades, the core reading of the same index may also show a 2.1% increase compared to a 7.7% decline in April.

This also comes in conjunction with the release of the aid claims index for the last week on June 20, which may reflect a decline of 188 thousand requests to 1,320 thousand applications compared to 1,508 thousand requests in the previous reading, as reading of the continuing benefit requests for the past week may appear in 13 From this month, a decrease of 576 thousand requests to 19,968 thousand requests, compared to 20,544 thousand requests.

Also, in conjunction with the release of the merchandise trade balance index, which may explain the deficit shrinking to $ 68.0 billion compared to $ 69.7 billion in April, and the release of the initial reading of the Wholesale Stocks Index, which may reflect the acceleration of growth to 0.4% compared to 0.3% in April, To the Federal Reserve's disclosure of test scores for the solvency and stress tests of the 34 largest banks in the United States of America.

Technical analysis

The dollar versus yen presented noticeable positive trading yesterday after finding strong support at 106.44, to head towards a possible test of the pivotal resistance 107.68, noting that the stochastic indicator is losing its positive momentum and entering overbought areas, which supports the chances of bouncing back to resume the main bearish trend.

From here, we expect the continuation of the overall bearish trend to continue in the coming period unless the 107.68 level is breached and stability above it, noting that the descending wave targets start at 106.44 and extend to 105.20 after breaking the previous level.

The expected trading range for today is between 106.44 support and 107.80 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bearish.