Euro Analysis 18-06-2020

The single currency fluctuated the euro in a narrow range slashing up during the Asian session to witness its bounce to the second session from the lowest since June 4 against the US dollar on the threshold of developments and economic data expected Thursday by the economies of the euro area and the US economy the largest economy in the world.
 
At 05:34 am GMT, the euro pair rose against the US dollar by 0.08% to 1.1253 levels, compared to the opening levels at 1.1244, after the pair achieved its highest level during the trading session at 1.1261, while achieving the lowest at 1.1225.
 
This is anticipated by the markets of Italy, the third largest economy in the euro area, the release of the trade balance reading, which may reflect the contraction of the surplus to what amounted to 4.88 billion euros against 5.69 billion euros in the previous reading last March, and this comes in conjunction with the European Central Bank's disclosure of its monthly publication It was first released in February of 2015.
 
On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting by the US economy the release of the index of subsidy requests for the week ending June 12, which may reflect a decline of 342 thousand requests to 1,300 thousand requests compared to 1,542 thousand requests in the previous reading, as may appear reading reading requests for relief Continuing for the week that ended on the fifth of this month, down by 1,129 thousand requests to 19,800 thousand requests, compared to 20,929 thousand requests.
 
This comes in conjunction with the disclosure by the largest industrialized country in the world of industrial sector data with the release of the Philadelphia Industrial Index reading, which may reflect the contraction in contraction to 23.0 compared to 43.1 last May, and before we also witnessed by the American economy the reading of indicators The leader, which may reflect a rise of 2.4%, compared to a decline of 4.4% last March.
 
To the talk of the President of the Cleveland Bank and the Federal Open Market Committee member Loretta Mester about the response of the Federal Reserve to the Corona pandemic in an event hosted by the World Takaful Center, and this comes hours after the activities of the semi-annual certification of the Governor of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell about the monetary policy in front of Congress American.
 
We would like to point out, because Powell Naughty testified before the Congress that there is a state of uncertainty about the timing and strength of the potential economic recovery and that the current downturn may lead to widening inequality within America in the event that the matter is not contained, while touching that "until the confidence is restored that the Corona pandemic is under control." , A full recovery will not be possible "and that" the downward curve continues and with it the possibility of jobs falling under the risk of final loss and business closure "
 
Powell said earlier this week that it is unlikely that we will fully recover the largest economy in the world before restoring economic confidence, with his consideration of the fact that the epidemic has a greater impact on people with low incomes, while addressing the fact that the difference in high unemployment is now in 2008, that At that time, there were no jobs, while the current situation is the result of business closings and that with its return people return to their jobs.
 
Powell stressed that the Federal Reserve is ready to provide more stimulus if the need arises and that the Federal Open Market Committee will do everything in its power to support the American economy, and that he touched on the fact that the Federal Reserve works to ensure the effectiveness of protection and safety systems before working to issue a digital dollar , Adding that if it turns out that the digital currency will be beneficial to the American economy, then the Federal Reserve will work to issue it.

Technical analysis

  
The euro against the dollar pair opens today's trading with a slight upward slope after yesterday's decline, heading towards a possible test of 1.1270 pivotal resistance, noting that SMA 50 meets this resistance to add more strength to it.
 
Consequently, the downside scenario will remain probable during the upcoming sessions, as the price remains below 1.1270, as its breach will lead the price to try to restore the main bullish trend and head towards 1.1420 initially, while our next negative target is at 1.1175.
 
The expected trading range for today is between 1.1150 support and 1.1320 resistance
 
Expected trend for today: bearish