EURUSD analysis 09.06.2020

The euro currency fluctuated in a narrow range slanting back down during the Asian session to witness its rebound from its top since March 10 for the second session in three sessions against the US dollar on the cusp of developments and economic data expected on Tuesday by the euro area and the US economy, which includes Euro Ecovin meeting and launch of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

At 05:17 am GMT, the euro against the US dollar fell 0.07% to 1.1286 levels, compared to the opening levels at 1.1294, after the pair achieved its lowest level during the trading session at 1.1284, while achieving the highest at 1.1315.

Markets are looking for Germany, the largest economy in the eurozone, to disclose the reading of the current account index for April, in conjunction with the disclosure of the reading of the trade balance index also for Germany, which may show a shrinking surplus to the value of 11.9 billion euros against 12.8 billion euros in March. And amid expectations, the seasonally adjusted reading of exports and imports showed a widening decline in April.

This comes before we witnessed by France, the second largest economy in the region, the release of the Trade Balance Index reading, which may explain the widening deficit to 3.4 billion euros against 3.3 billion euros in March, until the disclosure of labor market data for the economies of the euro area as a whole with the release of The end reading of the change in employment, which may confirm a 0.2% decline without a significant change from the first reading for the first quarter and against a rise of 0.3% in the fourth quarter.

This also comes in conjunction with the disclosure of the seasonally adjusted final reading of the euro area gross domestic product index as a whole, which may confirm a contraction of 3.8%, with little change from the initial reading and against a 0.1% growth in the fourth quarter, as the annual reading of the same indicator may confirm a contraction of 3.2% against Growth of 0.9%, and this coincides with the actual meetings of the finance ministers of the euro area Ecovin via satellite in Brussels.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting by the US economy the release of the final reading of the wholesale stocks index, which may confirm an increase of 0.4%, unchanged from the previous initial reading for the month of April, and against a decline of 0.8% last March, in conjunction with the disclosure of data The labor market with the release of a job read and a turnover statistic that may reflect a decrease to 5.75 million compared to 6.19 million in March.

Other than that, the markets are looking at a later time for the launching of the FOMC meeting that takes place today and tomorrow Wednesday via satellite in Washington, which is expected to keep the short-term benchmark interest rates for the second meeting at between zero and 0.25% in conjunction With the disclosure of the expectations of members of the Committee to the rates of growth, inflation and unemployment in addition to the future interest rates for the next three years.

Up to the press conference that Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell will hold tomorrow, specifically, half an hour after the FOMC meeting ends, to comment on the decisions of the Federal Committee, which recently adopted many stimulus programs until the economy showed signs of recovery, led by the Treasury bond purchase program at $ 500 One billion monthly and mortgage bonds, at least $ 200 a month.

Technical analysis

The euro against the dollar continues to fluctuate around the level of 1.1295, and as long as the daily close is above this level, the positive scenario will remain in place for the next period, supported by the moving average 50, which continues to carry the price from below, waiting for the direction towards 1.1418 as the next main station.

We recall that breaking 1.1295 and holding below it will pressure the price to shift towards the downside and head towards 1.1170 initially, before any new attempt to rise.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.1220 support and 1.1390 ​​resistance.

Expected trend for today: bullish.