EURUSD analysis 07.05.2020

The single currency fluctuated the euro in a narrow range slanting toward decline during the Asian session to witness its bounce to the fourth session from its top since the beginning of last month against the US dollar on the cusp of developments and economic data expected today Thursday by the economies of the region and the US economy, which includes the talk of a member of the Federal Open Market Committee and Chairman Philadelphia Federal Reserve Patrick Harker on the Chicago Board of World Affairs.

At exactly 05:57 AM GMT, the euro against the US dollar fell 0.04% to 1.0791 levels, compared to the opening levels at 1.0795, after the pair achieved its lowest level during the trading session at 1.0790, while achieving the highest at 1.0805.

Markets are looking for Germany, the largest economy in the euro area, to issue a seasonally adjusted reading of the industrial production index, which may show a 7.3% decline compared to a rise of 0.3% last February before we witness by France, the second-largest economy in the region, the release of the industrial production index, which may Reflect a 12.7% decline versus a 0.9% increase in February.

We are also looking by France for the issuance of the preliminary reading of the wages index in the private sector, which may reflect a 0.3% decline against stability at zero levels in the fourth quarter, in conjunction with the release of the Trade Balance reading for France, which may explain the deficit narrowing to 4.6 billion euros against 5.2 billion euros In February, before we witnessed by Italy, the region's third-largest economy, the retail sales reading was released, which may show a decline of 14.9% compared to a rise of 0.8%.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting by the US economy the release of the aid claims index for the last week on the second of May, which may reflect a decline of 839 thousand applications to 3,000 thousand requests compared to 3,839 thousand requests in the previous weekly reading, while reading requests may appear The continuous benefit for the last week on the 25th of this month, increasing by 1,913 thousand applications to 19,905 thousand applications compared to 17,992 thousand requests.

This comes in conjunction with the issuance of the initial reading of the single labor cost index, which reflects the acceleration of growth to 4.3% compared to 0.9% in the fourth quarter, while the initial reading of the productivity of the sectors other than agricultural may indicate a decrease of 5.4% versus an increase of 1.2%, leading to the participation of a member of the Federal Committee and the head of a bank Philadelphia Federal Reserve Patrick Harker at a hypothetical panel discussion on Coronavirus and economic forecasts at the Chicago Council on World Affairs.

Technical analysis

The euro against the dollar trades stable below the 1.0800 barrier, and it moves within a falling channel that appears in the above chart, which supports the continuation of the expected bearish trend scenario for the coming period, whose next targets are located at 1.0700 then 1.0640.

Consequently, the bearish bias will remain likely in the intraday and short term unless the price rushes to breach 1.0840 then 1.0865 levels and stability above it.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0700 support and 1.0880 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bearish.