AUDUSD analysis 29.04.2020

The Australian dollar rose during the Asian session to witness its highest since last March 21 against the US dollar after the developments and economic data that we followed about the Australian economy and on the cusp of developments and economic data expected today Wednesday by the US economy, which includes the activities of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting and the press conference To be held by Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell in Washington.

At exactly 02:50 am GMT, the Australian dollar pair rose against the US dollar by 0.51% to 0.6524 levels compared to the opening levels at 06491, after the pair achieved its highest level in six weeks at 0.6530, while it achieved its lowest during the trading session at 0.6487.

On the Australian economy, we have followed the disclosure of inflation data for the first quarter, with the release of the consumer price index, which showed a slowdown in growth to 0.3% compared to 0.7% in the previous reading for the fourth quarter, surpassing expectations that indicated a slowdown in growth to 0.2%, while the reading showed The intrinsic index of the same index stabilized the pace of growth at 0.5%, little changed from the previous reading for the fourth quarter, beating expectations of 0.3%.

In the same context, the annual reading of the consumer price index showed that growth accelerated to 2.2% compared to 1.8% in the previous annual reading for the fourth quarter, contrary to expectations that indicated an acceleration of growth to 2.0%, as the substantial annual reading of the consumer price index showed that growth accelerated to 1.8% against 1.6% in the fourth quarter, contrary to expectations that indicated its stability at the same previous rate.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting by the US economy the disclosure of the initial reading of the GDP of the United States for the first quarter, which may show the contraction of the largest economy in the world 4.0% compared to the growth of 2.1% in the fourth quarter, while the initial reading may reflect the GDP Measured by prices from the previous quarter, the growth rate slowed to 1.0% compared to 1.3% in the fourth quarter.

This comes before we witness the disclosure of housing market data with the release of existing home sales, which may show a 13.3% decline compared to a rise of 2.4% last February, and in conjunction with the activities of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting April 28-29, which is expected to Through it, monetary policymakers at the Federal Reserve maintain reference interest rates at zero levels between 0.25 and 0.25%.

Up to the events of the press conference to be held by Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell, which comes half an hour after the end of the activities of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee in Washington, and it is reported that the Federal Committee approved at the previous surprising meeting held on the 15th of March which was the second in Less than two weeks after the previous snap meeting on the third of the same month, returning interest to zero levels.

It is noteworthy that the Federal Committee reduced the interest on federal funds in the previous meeting by 100 basis points from between 1.00% and 1.25% to zero levels, which it remained from 2008 until the meeting of 27-28 October 2015, after reducing it at the emergency meeting The previous rate of 50 basis points from between 1.50% and 1.75%, and in the wake of cutting interest three times by 25 basis points in previous meetings last year.

Technical analysis

The Australian dollar versus the US dollar pair managed to touch our first waited target at 0.6500 and settle near it and gets continuous positive support from the EMA50, which enhances the chances of the continuation of the rise within the upward channel that appears in the picture, waiting for more upside tendency and heading towards our extended target that reaches To 0.6685.

Therefore, we will maintain our bullish expectations for the next period unless 0.6407 level is broken and stability below it.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6430 support and 0.6570 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bullish.