EURUSD analysis 28.04.2020

The single currency fluctuated the euro in a narrow range tilted to a decline during the Asian session against the US dollar on the threshold of developments and economic data expected today Tuesday by the fourth-largest economy in the euro area Spain and the US economy the largest economy in the world, which includes the launch of the activities of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in Washington.

At 05:12 am GMT, the euro against the US dollar fell 0.09% to 1.0819 levels, compared to the opening levels at 1.0829, after the pair achieved its lowest level during the trading session at 1.0817, while achieving the highest at 1.0836.

Investors are looking to the Spanish economy to disclose labor market data with the release of the unemployment rate index, which may show an increase to 15.6% compared to 13.8% in the fourth quarter. Otherwise, the markets will look after tomorrow, Thursday, to the European Central Bank meeting, which is expected to Through it monetary policymakers keep interest rates at their current zero levels.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting by the US economy the release of the merchandise trade balance index, which may explain the deficit shrinking to $ 55.0 billion compared to $ 59.9 billion last February, in conjunction with the disclosure of the initial reading of the wholesale inventory index, which may be Reflecting the contraction of the decline to 0.4% compared to 0.7% in February.

This comes before the annual reading of the house price index, which may show stable growth at 3.1% during February, and the disclosure by the largest industrialized country in the world of industrial sector data with the release of the Richmond Industrial Index, which may reflect a contraction of 41 versus a widening of 2 in March. Last March, in conjunction with the release of the consumer confidence index, which may show a shrinkage of expansion to 88.3 compared to 120.0 in March.

In another context, investors are awaiting later in the day for the launch of the FOMC meeting, April 28-29, in which it is expected that the benchmark interest rates will remain at zero levels between 0.25% and before we witness After tomorrow, Wednesday, the press conference holders will be held by Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell, half an hour after the meeting ends.

Technical analysis

The euro against the dollar ended yesterday's trading below the 1.0840 level, which keeps our expectations for the bearish trend intact and short term, where the moving average constitutes 50 negative pressure against the price, waiting for the resumption of the downside wave that targets 1.0700 then 1.0640 as the next main stations.

On the other hand, we should note that breaching 1.0840 and holding above it will stop the expected decline and lead the price to turn towards the rise and achieve gains that start with visiting the 1.0966 level.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0700 support and 1.0900 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bearish.