Gold analysis 20.04.2020

Gold price futures fluctuated in a narrow range tilted to bounce during the Asian session to witness the bounce from the lowest since April 9, disregarding the bounce of the US dollar index for the third session in four sessions from the lowest since 30 March, according to the reverse relationship between them The scarcity of economic data at the beginning of this week by the American economy, and following the People's Bank of China (Chinese Central Bank) reduction on Monday, as part of efforts to support credit growth in light of the repercussions of the Coronavirus.

At exactly 04:06 AM GMT, gold price futures for June delivery rose 0.21% to trade at $ 1,696.60 per ounce compared to the opening at $ 1,693.00 per ounce, knowing that the contracts started the session’s trading on a falling price gap after the week’s trades ended Last at $ 1,698.80 an ounce, while the US dollar index rose 0.18% to 99.91 compared to the opening at 99.73.

We have also followed up with the People's Bank of China (the Central Bank of China) reducing basic interest rates on loans for a year by 20 basis points to 3.85% from 4.05% and reducing interest on loans for five years to 4.65% from 4.075% as part of efforts to support credit growth in Asia's largest economy, and we would like to point out that this rate cut is the second by the Central Bank of China this year.

It is reported that the National Bureau of Statistics of China revealed last Friday a seasonally adjusted reading of GDP for the first quarter, which showed a contraction of 9.8%, in line with expectations, against the growth of 1.5% during the fourth quarter, as the annual reading of the same index showed a contraction of 6.8% against a growth of 6.1% in reading The previous quarterly quarter, worse than forecasts for a contraction of 6.0%.

The office also revealed at that time the annual reading of the retail sales index, which showed the decline decreased to 15.8% compared to 20.5% last February, worse than the expectations that indicated a 10.0% decline, as the annual reading of industrial production showed the decline decreased to 1.1% compared to 13.5%, Outperforming expectations for a decrease of 7.0%, while the reading of unemployment rates at that time also showed a decline to 5.9% compared to 6.2% in February.

We would like to point out, because the economic data that were adopted Friday by the Chinese economy, the second-largest economy in the world and the second-largest industrialized world in the world, showed the first contraction of the Chinese economy since the data collection began in 1992, due to the repercussions of the outbreak of the Coronavirus, which started in Wuhan, China Last year, it spread to the world after that and led to the closure of most of the global economies and reduced the movement of citizens globally.

Other than that, we followed last weekend, Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelos and US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin expressed optimism about a deal to increase funds in the loan program that aims to help small American companies withstand the consequences of the coronary virus outbreaks in the states United recently.

In another context, New York State Governor Andrew Como also stated at the end of last week that his state may have exceeded the high level of death from coronavirus, and states that fewer daily deaths were reported in Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom, according to the latest figures issued by the World Health Organization, the number of cases infected with the Coronavirus rose to nearly 2.25 million, and 152,707 people were killed in 213 countries.

Markets are looking closely now at developments in Gilead Sassensis’s disclosure of its drug that is rumored to be effective in combating coronavirus and can eradicate it, especially that it can be effective in dealing with critical cases. It is reported that US President Donald Trump recently announced his administration’s plan to restart and operate the economy The US gradually, indicating the possibility of a global medical crisis to subside later, while its economic consequences remain.

Technical analysis

Gold price opens trading today with a bearish tendency to press the pivotal support level 1678.45, which represents the Fibonacci correction level 23.6% to rise from 1455.16 to 1747.43, forming one of the keys to the next direction besides the resistance 1711.00, and as we indicated in our recent reports, the price needs to penetrate one of these levels to determine His next goals are more accurate, which makes us keep neutral until now.

We point out that the breach of the mentioned support will pressure the price to make more bearish correction targeting 1635.80 as the next negative station while breaching the resistance represents the key to restore the main bullish trend whose targets begin with testing the recently recorded top at 1747.43 and extending to 1775.00.

The expected trading range for today is between 1660.00 support and 1710.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: It depends on the levels mentioned in the report.