Gold analysis 17.04.2020

Gold price futures fluctuated in a narrow range tilted toward decline during the Asian session, to witness its bounce back to the fourth session from the top since October 5, 2012, condoning the decline in the US dollar index according to the inverse relationship between them after the developments and economic data that they followed from the Chinese economy, the largest consumer Metals globally and on the threshold of developments and economic data expected today by the American economy and with the evaluation of markets for the plans of many countries that aim to reduce precautionary measures against Corona.

At exactly 04:03 AM GMT, gold futures contracts for June delivery fell 1.08% to trade at $ 1,720.00 per ounce compared to the opening at $ 1,738.50 per ounce, knowing that the contracts started the session’s trading on an upward price gap after yesterday’s trading was concluded At $ 1,731.70 an ounce, while the US dollar index fell 0.07% to 99.81 compared to the opening at 99.88.

We have followed a short while ago, the National Bureau of Statistics of China revealed a seasonally adjusted reading for the first-quarter GDP, which showed a contraction of 9.8% in line with expectations against the growth of 1.5% during the last fourth quarter, as the annual reading of the same index showed a contraction of 6.8% compared to growth of 6.1% in The previous annual reading for the fourth quarter, worse than expectations, which indicated a contraction of 6.0%.

The office also revealed the annual reading of the retail sales index, which showed the decline decreased to 15.8% compared to 20.5% in the previous annual reading for the month of February, worse than the expectations that indicated a 10.0% decline, as the annual reading of industrial production showed the decline decreased to 1.1% against 13.5%, beating expectations that indicated a decline of 7.0%, while the reading of unemployment rates showed a decline to 5.9% compared to 6.2% in February.

We would like to point out, because the economic data that we have reported on the Chinese economy are the largest in Asia, the second largest in the world and the second-largest industrialized world in the world. At the end of last year, it spread to the world after that and led to the closure of most of the global economies and reduced the movement of citizens globally.

On the other hand, investors are currently looking ahead by the US economy for the release of the leading indicators that may reflect a decline of 7.1% against a rise of 0.1% in February. Otherwise, we have followed yesterday. US President Donald Trump expressed his belief that the outbreak of the Coronavirus in his country has reached its peak, and that the days will witness a noticeable decline in cases of coronavirus infections and deaths resulting from it, while addressing the importance of gradually restoring the economy.

Trump also announced, with his announcement of "guidelines" for restarting the economy, that the cost of sustaining the economy has been closed for an excessively long period, and the US federal guidelines issued yesterday recommend documenting the "downward path" in cases of coronavirus and influenza-like illnesses before commuting orders in The house is for citizens of the United States, after which the sunrise in the process of re-opening the country can be done in three stages.

This comes hours after US President Trump stopped his country’s funding of the World Health Organization with harsh criticism of the organization, and it is reported that the organization stated last Monday that the world had not reached the peak of the Coronavirus outbreak, warning of easing restrictions on citizen movements and the possibility of a new wave of coronavirus outbreaks This came after some countries announced plans to reduce the precautionary measures that Germany joined last Wednesday.

According to the latest figures issued by the World Health Organization, the number of coronavirus cases globally has risen to nearly two million and 131,037 people have died in 213 countries. Otherwise, last Tuesday, we followed the International Monetary Fund warning that the world economy may witness a deflation this year At three percent, which may reflect the worst performance of the global economy since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Technical analysis

Gold price shows a more bearish tendency to test the support of the bullish channel that appears in the picture, which requires attention from the upcoming trading, as the continuation of negative pressure and breaking 1700.00 will lead the price to start a descending corrective wave on the intraday basis.

Until now, the bullish trend scenario remains effective provided the stability is above 1700.00, supported by the EMA50 that carries the price from below, noting that breaching 1730.00 will facilitate the price task by heading towards our main waited target at 1775.00.

The expected trading range for today is between 1690.00 support and 1740.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bullish.