EURUSD analysis 16.04.2020

The single currency fluctuated the euro in a narrow range slanting back down during the Asian session to witness its bounce for the second consecutive session from the top since the beginning of April this year against the US dollar on the threshold of economic developments and data expected today Thursday by the eurozone and the US economy, which includes the talk of a member of the committee Federal Open Market and New York Fed President John Williams.

At 05:32 am GMT, the euro against the US dollar fell 0.25% to 1.0883 levels compared to the opening levels at 1.0910 after the pair achieved its lowest level during the trading session at 1.0865, while achieving the highest at 1.0911.

Markets are looking for the largest Eurozone economies to disclose inflation data with the final reading of the consumer price index, which may reflect the stability of growth at 0.1%, unchanged from the previous initial reading for the month of March, compared to 0.4% growth in February. The past, in conjunction with the release of the wholesale stock price index also for Germany, which may explain a 0.2% increase compared to a 0.9% decline in February.

This comes before we witness about the economies of the euro area as a whole revealing the seasonally adjusted reading of the industrial production index, which may reflect a 0.1% decline against a rise of 2.3% last January, while the annual reading of the same indicator may show the stability of the decline at 1.9% without change Recall what it was in the previous annual reading for January.

On the other hand, investors of the US economy are looking forward to the release of the aid claims index for the last week on April 11, which may reflect a decline by 1,256 thousand applications to 5,350 thousand applications compared to 6,606 thousand requests in the previous weekly reading, and this comes in conjunction with the disclosure of data The industrial sector, with the release of the Philadelphia Industrial Index reading, which may reflect the widening of the deflation to 30.0 compared to 36.7 in March.

This comes before we witness the disclosure of housing market data with the release of both the beginning construction index and the building permit index, and amid expectations that the construction permits reading will reflect the widening of the decline to 10.5% to about 1,300 thousand permits compared to a 5.5% decline at 1,464 thousand permits in February / February, and the readings for homes that were built may also reflect a widening decline to 17.7% to about 1,317 thousand homes compared to a decline of 1.5% at 1,599 thousand homes in February.

Up to the talk of a member of the Federal Open Market Committee and President of the New York Federal Reserve Bank John Williams about the economic outlook at the Economic Club in New York via satellite, and that comes hours after the Federal Reserve revealed yesterday the book Big, which addressed the members of the Federal Committee for the Open Market Because the economy has a difficult path of deflation and high unemployment rates, it will continue to rise.

Other than that, the markets are looking forward to the announcement of US President Donald Trump about the "guidelines" for restarting the economy, and this comes hours after his country suspended funding for the World Health Organization with harsh criticism of the organization, and it is reported that the International Monetary Fund warned last Tuesday that the global economy may witness During this year, a contraction of 3% may reflect the worst performance of the global economy since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Technical analysis

The euro against the dollar pair is facing more negative pressure to decrease with the opening of trading today and heading towards testing the 1.0840 pivotal support, which represents one of the keys to the next direction besides the resistance 1.0966, and as we indicated in our last technical update, the price needs to overcome one of these levels to determine its next destination more accurately, Which keeps us neutral until now.

The discrepancy between Stochastic positivity and SMA 50 negativity provides another reason for neutrality, noting that breaking the mentioned support will put the price under more negative pressure to target 1.0700 then 1.0640 levels as next stations, while breaching the resistance will return the price to the bullish correctional path whose first target is at 1.1067.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0780 support and 1.0970 resistance.

Expected trend for today: neutral.