AUDUSD analysis 16.04.2020

The Australian dollar fell during the Asian session to witness its bounce to the third session from its top since last March 12 against the US dollar after the developments and economic data that it had reported on the Australian economy and on the cusp of developments and economic data expected on Thursday by the American economy, which includes the talk of a member of the Federal Committee For the open market and New York Fed Chairman John Williams.

At exactly 02:38 AM GMT, the Australian dollar pair declined against the US dollar by 0.46% to 0.6290 levels compared to the opening levels at 0.6319, after the pair achieved its lowest level since the ninth of April at 0.6269, while achieving the highest during trading The session is at 0.6323.

On the Australian economy, we have followed the release of the Melbourne Institute reading of consumer expectations of inflation, which showed an increase to 4.6 compared to 4.0% in April, and this came before the disclosure of the unemployment rate, which showed an increase to 5.2% compared to 5.1% in February, contrary to expectations at 5.4%, in conjunction with the reading of change in employment showed an increase of about 5.9 thousand compared to a rise of 25.6 thousand in February, contrary to expectations that indicated a decline of 33.0 thousand.

We would like to point out because the Australian Bureau of Statistics warned with its disclosure of labor market data that the employment data for the last month covered only the first two weeks of March before the closing procedures to contain the outbreak of the Coronavirus, and according to the latest figures issued by the World Health Organization, the number of infected cases has increased The global coronavirus has reached nearly 1.92 million, and 123,126 people have died in 213 countries.

On the other hand, investors of the US economy are looking forward to the release of the aid claims index for the last week on April 11, which may reflect a decline by 1,256 thousand applications to 5,350 thousand applications compared to 6,606 thousand requests in the previous weekly reading, and this comes in conjunction with the disclosure of data The industrial sector, with the release of the Philadelphia Industrial Index reading, which may reflect the widening of the deflation to 30.0 compared to 36.7 in March.

This comes before we witness the disclosure of housing market data with the release of both the beginning construction index and the building permit index, and amid expectations that the construction permits reading will reflect the widening of the decline to 10.5% to about 1,300 thousand permits compared to a 5.5% decline at 1,464 thousand permits in February / February, and the readings for homes that were built may also reflect a widening decline to 17.7% to about 1,317 thousand homes compared to a decline of 1.5% at 1,599 thousand homes in February.

Up to the talk of a member of the Federal Open Market Committee and President of the New York Federal Reserve Bank John Williams about the economic outlook at the Economic Club in New York via satellite, and that comes hours after the Federal Reserve revealed yesterday the book Big, which addressed the members of the Federal Committee for the Open Market Because the economy has a difficult path of deflation and high unemployment rates, it will continue to rise.

Other than that, the markets are looking forward to US President Donald Trump's announcement of "guidelines" for restarting the economy, and this comes hours after his country suspended funding for the World Health Organization with harsh criticism of the organization, and it is reported that the International Monetary Fund warned last Tuesday that the global economy may witness During this year, a contraction of 3% may reflect the worst performance of the global economy since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Technical analysis

The Australian dollar pair against the US dollar ended yesterday's trading below the level of 0.6407, and today begins with a further decline to break the support of the bullish corrective channel, to approach the level of 0.6236, indicating that the price is on its way to achieve further decline during the upcoming sessions.

Thus, a bearish bias will be expected for today, and breaking 0.6236 will confirm the rally towards 0.6097 as the first main station, noting that a break of 0.6315 is considered an initial positive factor that will lead the price to try to recover and test 0.6407 initially.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6170 support and 0.6350 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bearish.