Gold analysis 15.04.2020

Gold price futures fluctuated in a narrow range that tilted back down during the Asian session to witness its bounce for the second session from its highest since October 5, 2012, when it tested the highest for it since November 9, 2011, amid the rise in the US dollar index, indicating its bounce from The lowest since March 30, according to the inverse relationship between them, on the cusp of developments and economic data expected today Tuesday by the US economy, the largest economy in the world.

At 04:04 AM GMT, gold futures contracts for June delivery fell 0.19% to trade at $ 1,754.80 per ounce compared to the opening at $ 1,758.10 per ounce, knowing that the contracts started the session’s trading on a falling price gap after yesterday's trading was concluded At $ 1,768.90 an ounce, with the US dollar index rising 0.10% to 98.92 compared to the opening at 98.82.

Investors are currently awaiting the US economy to reveal a retail sales reading that represents about half of consumer spending, which represents more than two-thirds of the gross domestic product of the United States, which may reflect the widening decline for the worst ever to 8.0% compared to 0.5% in February, as well as A substantial reading of the same indicator may also show the widest decline for the worst ever to 4.9% compared to 0.4% in February.

This comes in conjunction with the disclosure of industrial sector data for the largest industrial country in the world with the release of the New York Industrial Index reading, which may reflect the widening of the contraction to 35.2 compared to 21.5 in March, before the release of the Industrial Production Index, which may reflect a 4.1% decline compared to It rose 0.6% in February, while an energy utilization rate reading may show a slowdown in the pace of growth to 73.7% compared to 77.0% in February.

Markets are also looking to publish a reading of the wholesale stocks index, which may explain the decline in the decline to 0.4% compared to 0.1% in January, in conjunction with the disclosure of housing market data with the release of the housing index reading by the National Association of Home Builders, which may reflect a decline to 56 versus 72 in February, all the way to the unveiling of the Big Book, which is important because it is published two weeks before the FOMC meeting.

In another context, we have followed the World Health Organization expressed last Monday that the world has not reached the height of the Coronavirus outbreak, warning against easing restrictions on citizen movements and the possibility of a new wave of a virus outbreak, and it is reported that US President Donald Trump also tweeted Monday through his personal account on Twitter is one of those who has the power to reopen his country's economy and lift movement restrictions on citizens, not state governors in his country.

We would like to point out, because many state rulers in the United States of America have expressed their refusal to see the Republican President of the United States as authorized to reopen the economy, led by New York State Governor Andrew Como, who stated that Trump is wrong and does not have full authority over the United States, explaining that reopening America must be gradual and balanced and that the tests will determine future decisions, adding that the current tests do not allow reopening.

Technical analysis

Gold price bounced lower after testing the resistance of the bullish sub-channel that appears in the image, and was affected by the negativity of the stochastic indicator, which we notice is trying to gather positive momentum now, approaching the oversold areas in the sale, which supports the chances of resuming the main bullish trend, whose next target is located at 1770.00.

From here, the upside scenario will remain valid for the upcoming period supported by the EMA50, taking into consideration that breaking 1695.00 will press the price to start a descending corrective wave on the intraday basis before returning to rise again.

The expected trading range for today is between 1700.00 support and 1750.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bullish.