EURUSD analysis 10.04.2020

The euro currency fluctuated in a narrow range tilted to the upside during the Asian session to witness its bounce back for the third session in five sessions from the lowest since March 25 against the US dollar on the cusp of developments and economic data expected Friday by France, the second largest euro area economy and the largest US economy Economy of the World, which includes the talk of members of the Federal Open Market Committee

At exactly 05:52 am GMT, the euro pair rose against the US dollar by 0.08% to 1.0939 levels compared to the opening levels at 1.0930 after the pair achieved its highest level during the trading session at 1.0944, while achieving the lowest at 1.0920.

The markets are currently looking by France for the release of the Industrial Production Index reading, which may reflect stability at zero levels against a rise of 1.2% in February. Otherwise, we followed yesterday the European Central Bank Governor Christine Lagarde expressed the fact that there can be forms From European solidarity, explaining that this could be done by spending a joint budget or a reconstruction fund.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank indicated to Lagarde that the value of the euro is stable at the moment and that the level of the euro is good compared to other currencies, with its discussion of the fact that the European Central wishes to see high inflation rates, and that it will work to ensure the transfer of its policy to the entire euro area, adding that The focus should only be on bonds facing the Corona virus.

Otherwise, yesterday we also followed the agreement of the European Union finance ministers on a stimulus package worth 540 billion euros ($ 590 billion) to combat the economic repercussions of the global epidemic. In another context, we followed yesterday the Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte expressed that his country might start Gradually reduce some of the restrictions it imposed to contain the outbreak of corona by the end of this month, if the prevalence of the coronavirus continues to slow.

Conte said that his government would carefully choose the sectors that could resume its activities, if the spread of the dangerous virus slowed, explaining that his country would gradually relax some restrictions and not reduce the level of the ban, which boosted hopes that the deadly virus outbreak may have reached its peak, according to the latest figures issued by The World Health Organization has increased the number of cases of coronavirus to nearly 1.44 million and 85,711 people have died in 212 countries.

In another context, we also followed Wednesday, the European Union's chief commissioner, Michel Barnier, said that it had been agreed to speak with the British negotiator about Britain's exit file from the European Union, David Frost, next week to agree on the next round of trade negotiations between Brussels and London, while he touched on the fact that work The European Commission is continuing and that negotiations should continue despite the difficulty of the present time with the outbreak of corona.

On the other hand, the markets are looking to the US economy to reveal inflation data with the release of the consumer price index, which may reflect a 0.3% contraction versus 0.1% growth in February, while the core reading of the index may show a slowdown in growth to 0.1% versus 0.2% in February, the annual reading of the index may show a slowdown in growth to 1.6% versus 2.3%, as a substantial annual reading may show a slowdown in growth to 2.3% versus 2.4%.

This comes before we witness later in the day the speech of the members of the Federal Open Market Committee, President of the Cleveland Bank, Federal Reserve Loretta Mister, who is expected to talk about maintaining economic health during the crisis through satellites, and Deputy Governor of the Federal Reserve, Randall Carls, who is scheduled That talks about the banking system at the University of Utah also via satellite.

In the same context, we followed yesterday, Thursday, Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell about the state economy via satellites at the Brookings Institution, through which he noted that unemployment rates may rise strongly temporarily and that there will be entities that need direct financial support, while stating that the reserve The Fed has the ability to lend, but it does not have the ability to spend.

Powell also noted yesterday that there are signs that the recovery may be robust when it happens, while addressing the fact that market conditions have generally improved following measures taken by the Federal Reserve, and this came in the wake of his assertion that the Federal Reserve still has enough room to Take more action and stimulus to support the world's largest economy.

Powell's comments came hours after the Federal Reserve suddenly announced that additional $ 2.3 trillion in loans would be provided to support the economy and that it was working to provide assistance to all families and workers in American companies of all sizes, explaining that the debt of high-yielding companies would be purchased in addition to supporting government spending As well as the debts of small companies.

It is noteworthy that the Federal Reserve revealed last Wednesday the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held on March 15th that surprising meeting, which was the second in less than two weeks after the previous surprise meeting on the third of the same month, which approved the monetary policy makers at The Federal Reserve returns short-term benchmark interest rates to zero levels.

Technical analysis

The euro against the dollar continues to rise to the outskirts of 1.0966, and it moves within an intraday bullish channel that may bear the price to breach the mentioned level and then return to the bullish corrective path, especially as the EMA50 provides positive support for the price.

On the other hand, the stochastic oscillator is showing a clear oversold sign that may constitute negative pressure that pushes the price to rebound down and resume the suggested bearish path in our recent reports.

Consequently, the discrepancy between technical factors makes us prefer stopping on neutral until we get a clearer signal for the next direction, noting that a breach of 1.0966 will push the price to visit the 1.1067 level as a next positive target, while a break of 1.0840 will reactivate the bearish trend scenario whose next targets are located at 1.0700 Then 1.0640.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0840 support and 1.1040 resistance

Expected trend for today: It depends on the levels mentioned in the report