AUDUSD analysis 09.04.2020

The Australian dollar fluctuated in a narrow range tilted to the upside during the Asian session to witness its rebound from above since March 16 against the US dollar after the Reserve Bank of Australia revealed its semi-annual report to review financial stability and on the cusp of developments and economic data expected Thursday by the US economy These include the speech of Fed Governor Jerome Powell at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

At 02:32 am GMT, the Australian dollar pair declined against the US dollar by 0.32% to 0.5958 levels compared to the opening levels at 0.5977, after the pair achieved its lowest level during the trading session at 0.5941, while achieving the highest at 0.5984.

We have followed up on the Australian economy, the Australian Central Bank revealed its semi-annual report on the review of financial stability, which was presented through its analysis of the Reserve Bank of Australia's assessment of the conditions in the financial system and the potential risks of financial stability, and the report stated that Australia is in a good position to manage the increased financial risks from the outbreak Corona virus globally.

On the other hand, investors are currently looking to the US economy for the publication of the index of subsidy requests for the past week on the fourth of April, which may reflect a decline of 1,648 thousand applications to 5,000 thousand requests compared to 6,648 thousand requests in the previous weekly reading, and this comes in conjunction with the disclosure On reading the PPI, which is an initial indicator of inflation, which may reflect the contraction in contraction to 0.3% compared to 0.6% last February.

In the same context, the core PPI reading may show stability at zero levels versus a 0.3% contraction in the previous reading in February, while the annual PPI reading may show a slowdown in growth to 0.5% compared to 1.3% in the previous annual reading of February February, and the core annual reading of the same indicator may also reflect slowing growth to 1.2% from 1.4% in February.

This comes before we witness the disclosure of the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan index of consumer confidence, which may show a decrease to 75.0 compared to 89.1 in March, in conjunction with the release of the final reading of the wholesale inventory index, which may reflect the stability of the decline at 0.5% during January. Last January, also in conjunction with the anticipated speech by Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell about his country's satellite economy at the Brookings Institution.

It is noteworthy that the Federal Reserve revealed yesterday, Wednesday, the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held on the 15th of March, that surprising meeting, which was the second in less than two weeks after the previous surprising meeting on the third of the same month, which approved the monetary policy makers at The Federal Reserve returns short-term benchmark interest rates to zero levels.

The members of the Federal Open Market Committee reduced the interest on federal funds at the time by 100 basis points to between zero levels and 0.25%, which remained since 2008 until the meeting of 27-28 October 2015, after reducing them in the previous emergency meeting by 50 points The basis is between 1.50% and 1.75%, and this comes in the wake of the committee members cutting interest three times by 25 basis points in previous meetings last year.

The minutes of the meeting stated yesterday that the reduction decision is in effect from March 16, and that the Federal Open Market Committee will undertake repurchases of treasury bonds with at least $ 500 billion per month and mortgage-backed securities of at least $ 200 billion per month, provided that Make these purchases at the appropriate speed to support the smooth performance of the stock market, treasury and mortgage market.

In another context, we followed yesterday, Trump expressed that he would like to open his country's economy through the "big bang", but the death toll from the outbreak of the coronavirus must be on the slope first, and it is stated that he announced in advance the extension of the quarantine in America until the end of this month to reduce From the spread of Corona, according to the latest figures issued by the World Health Organization, the number of cases has increased to nearly 1,357 thousand, and 79,385 people have died in 212 countries.

Technical analysis

The Australian dollar versus the US dollar succeeded in achieving our first awaited target at 0.6236, and today begins with an upward tendency in an attempt to breach this level, which supports the chances of an extension of the upside wave during the coming period, awaiting the direction towards 0.6407 as the next main station.

Consequently, the bullish trend will remain likely in the intraday and short term, regular within the bullish channel that appears in the picture, noting that a break of 0.6097 will stop the positive scenario and put the price under negative pressure again.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6150 support and 0.6340 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bullish.