GOLD analysis 02.04.2020

Gold price futures fluctuated in a narrow range that tilted back down during the Asian session to witness its rebound to the fifth session in seven sessions from its highest since the ninth of March, when it tested the highest since December 18, 2012 amid the rebound of the US dollar index for the third session In five sessions from the lowest since 17 March, according to the inverse relationship between them, on the cusp of developments and economic data expected today, Thursday, by the US economy and in the shadow of concern about the repercussions of the outbreak of the global corona virus.

At exactly 03:23 AM GMT, gold price futures for June delivery decreased 0.32% to trade at $ 1,597.30 per ounce compared to the opening at $ 1,602.40 per ounce, knowing that the contracts started the trading session on an upward price gap after it concluded yesterday's trading At $ 1,591.40 an ounce, with the US dollar index rising 0.14% to 99.66 compared to the opening at 99.52.

Investors are currently awaiting by the American economy the release of the aid requests index for the last week on March 28, which may reflect an increase of 217 thousand requests to 3,500 thousand requests compared to 3,283 thousand requests in the previous weekly reading, and this comes in conjunction with the release of the index index reading Commercial Goods, which may explain deficit shrinkage to $ 40.6 billion, compared to $ 45.3 billion last February.

This also comes in conjunction with the disclosure of the initial reading of the wholesale stocks index, which may show a 0.2% increase compared to a 0.5% decline in February. Otherwise, we followed yesterday by President Donald Trump's warning that the coming period is "painful" for his country, and this came after His announcement last Sunday of the extension of guidelines for social restrictions in America until the end of this month as part of efforts to reduce the spread of the Corona virus.

It is noteworthy that US President Trump recently signed a stimulus package estimated at $ 2 trillion to support the largest economy in the world and American families and companies in facing the repercussions of the Corona Virus following the passing of the bill in the US Congress last week, and according to the latest figures issued by the organization, the number of cases has increased More than 827,000 people were infected with the virus, and 40,777 people died in 205 countries.

In another context, we followed last Monday the announcement of the Russian Central Bank, the largest buyer of gold globally, about its intention to stop its purchase of gold at the beginning of April, and he did not provide reasons for that suspension, with his statement that his future decisions will depend on the state of the financial markets, and we would like to point out that the outbreak Corona caused hundreds of flights to be stopped, preventing the transport of gold and disrupting global supply chains, and Russia's reserves are estimated until the end of February, according to the latest data of the Russian Central Bank at about 73.6 million ounces, or about $ 119.8 billion.

Technical analysis

The gold price tested the level of 1571.20 and maintained its stability above it, while the stochastic index starts to rise to provide positive signals that support the chances of resuming the bullish bias during the upcoming sessions, waiting for the 1599.10 level to be tested initially, noting that penetration of this level is required to confirm the continuation of the bullish wave and achieve positive goals that begin At 1633.60 it extends to 1689.30.

From here, we continue to favor the bullish trend over the intraday and short term provided that the price maintains the daily closing stability above 1571.20 level

The expected trading range for today is between 1570.00 support and 1610.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bullish.