EURUSD analysis 01.04.2020

The single currency euro fell during the Asian session to witness its bounce to the fourth session from the top since March 17 against the US dollar on the threshold of developments and economic data expected today Wednesday by the economies of the euro area and the US economy the largest economy in the world.

At exactly 05:02 AM GMT, the euro against the US dollar fell 0.13% to 1.1017 levels compared to the opening levels at 1.1031 after the pair achieved its lowest level during the trading session at 1.1006, while it achieved the highest at 1.1039.

Markets are looking by Germany, the region’s largest economy, to reveal the retail sales index reading, which may reflect a slowdown in growth to 0.1% versus 0.9% in January, as the annual reading of the same indicator may show a slowdown in growth to 1.5% against 1.8%, before For Spain, the region's fourth largest economy, to see the Manufacturing PMI reading, which may reflect a contraction to 44.0 versus an expansion of 50.4 in February.

This comes before we witness the disclosure of the reading of the manufacturing PMI for Italy, the third largest economy in the euro area, which may explain the widening of the contraction to 41.1 compared to 48.7 in February, and before the release of the final reading of the industrial purchasing managers index from France, the second largest economy in the euro area, which may reflect The contraction stabilized at 42.9 compared to 49.8 in February.

Up to the final reading of the Manufacturing PMI for Germany and the economies of the eurozone as a whole, which may explain the extent of the contraction to 45.6 compared to 45.7 in Germany and 48.0 in February, and also the expansion of the contraction to 44.7 compared to 44.8 in the region as a whole and 49.2, before we also witness about the economies The region as a whole discloses labor market data with the release of the unemployment rate reading, which may show stability at 7.4% during February.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting by the US economy to disclose preliminary data for the labor market with the release of the index of change in private sector jobs, which may reflect the loss of 150 thousand jobs compared to 183 thousand added jobs in February, and this comes hours before the disclosure after Tomorrow, Friday, the monthly report for jobs except agricultural and unemployment rates, in addition to the average hourly earnings for the month of March.

Markets are also looking to reveal the final reading of the manufacturing PMI by Markit for the United States, which may reflect the widening contraction to 48.2 compared to 49.2 in the initial reading last month and against expansion at 50.7 in February, before we witness the release of the spending index reading On construction, which shows growth slowed to 0.6% versus 1.8% in January.

This comes in conjunction with the disclosure also by the largest industrialized country in the world about the reading of the Institute of Industrial Supply index, which may show a contraction to 44.9 compared to a expansion at 50.1 in February, while a reading of the Institute of Industrial Supply measured in prices may indicate the extent of the contraction to 41.6 Versus 45.9, and we would like to point out, because the reading reading at a value of 50 or higher reflects a widening, while its reading below 50 indicates a contraction.

Technical analysis

The EURUSD pair maintained its stability above 1.0966 after trying to break it yesterday, and by looking carefully at the chart, we find that the price has completed forming an upward continuation flag pattern after penetrating the descending sub-channel resistance that appears in the image, which constitutes a positive incentive that we expect to contribute to the price To resume the bullish trend during the upcoming sessions.

From here, we expect a positive trading today, and targets start with the breach of 1.1067 to confirm opening the way for a visit to the 1.1170 level as a next station, noting the importance of holding above 1.0966 to continue the expected rise.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0950 support and 1.1150 resistance

Expected trend for today: bullish