EURUSD analysis 31.03.2020

The single currency, the euro, fell during the Asian session to witness its bounce back for the third session from the top since March 17, to prepare for its third monthly losses in a row and quarterly losses against the US dollar on the cusp of developments and economic data expected today Tuesday by the economies of the euro area and the American economy the largest economy In the world.

At 05:14 am GMT, the euro against the US dollar fell by 0.32% to 1.1013 levels compared to the opening levels at 1.1048 after the pair achieved its lowest level during the trading session at 1.0984, while achieving the highest at 1.1053.

Investors are looking to the largest euro zone economies, Germany, for the release of the import price index, which may reflect a contraction of the decline to 0.3% compared to 0.4% in January, while the annual reading of the same indicator may show a widening decline to 1.5% compared to 0.9%, and that Before we witnessed by France, the second largest economy in the region, the release of consumer spending, which may reflect a decline in the decline to 0.7% compared to 1.1% in February.

Markets are also awaiting by France the disclosure of inflation data with the release of the initial reading of the consumer price index, which may reflect a 0.4% contraction against stability at zero levels in February, until the release of the change in unemployment reading for Germany, which may reflect a rise of about 23 thousand against It fell by 10K in February.

This comes before we witness from Italy, the third largest economy in the euro area, the issuance of the initial reading of the consumer price index, which may show 0.1% growth versus a 0.1% contraction in February, and in conjunction with the release of the initial annual reading of the same index for the economies of the region as a whole, which may reflect slowing growth to 0.8% vs. 1.2% in February, as the preliminary annual core reading of the index may show, the growth slowed to 1.1% vs. 1.2%.

On the other hand, investors are currently waiting for the US economy to disclose housing market data with the release of the house price index, which may show a slowdown in growth to 0.40% compared to 0.43% last December, and the annual reading of the S&P House Price Index showed an acceleration Growth to 3.29% versus 2.85% in the previous annual reading for December.

This comes before we witnessed by the largest industrialized country in the world, the disclosure of industrial sector data with the release of the Chicago PMI reading, which may reflect the widening of the contraction to 44.1 compared to 49.0 in February, up to the disclosure of the consumer confidence index reading that may appear Breadth shrank to 115.1 from 130.7 in the previous reading in February.

It is noteworthy that US President Donald Trump recently signed a stimulus package estimated at $ 2 trillion to support the largest economy in the world and American families and companies in facing the repercussions of the Corona virus, after the package was passed by the US Congress last week, and Trump approved last Sunday the extension Guidelines for social restrictions in the United States until next April 30.

Technical analysis

The euro against the dollar hovering around the support of the bullish intraday channel, and maintains its stability above the level of 1.0966, noting that the stochastic is providing a positive crossover now, which constitutes a positive incentive that we expect to contribute to pushing the price to resume the bullish trend, whose goals begin to exceed the 1.1067 level to confirm the rally Toward 1.1170 as a next positive stop.

Therefore, we will continue to favor the bullish trend for the upcoming period supported by the EMA50, noting that breaching 1.0966 will stop the suggested rise and press the price to return to the main bearish path again.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0960 support and 1.1170 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bullish.