AUD analysis 24.03.2020

The Australian dollar rose during the Asian session to witness its bounce to the fourth session from the lowest since October 21, 2002 against the US dollar, following the developments and economic data that were reported by the Australian economy and on the cusp of developments and economic data expected today Tuesday by the US economy, the largest economy in the world.

At exactly 03:19 am GMT, the Australian dollar pair rose against the US dollar by 1.73% to 0.5939 levels compared to the opening levels at 0.5838, after the pair achieved its highest level during the trading session at 0.5945, while achieving the lowest at 0.5812.

This has followed the disclosure of the initial reading of the Markit Manufacturing and Services PMI for Australia for the month of March, and the initial reading of the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index showed that the expansion decreased to 50.1 compared to 50.2 last February, while the initial reading of the Services PMI showed expansion Shrinkage to 39.8 versus 49.0 in February

On the other hand, investors are awaiting the disclosure of the initial reading of the Markit manufacturing and services PMI for the United States, which may reflect the contraction of the industrial sector in the largest industrial country in the world to a value of 45.1 compared to a expansion of 50.7 in the previous reading for the month of February, while it may We are witnessing the expansion of the service sector to 44.1 compared to 49.4 in February.

This comes before we also witnessed by the US economy the disclosure of the Richmond Industrial Index reading that may reflect the widening contraction to 10 versus 2 in February, up to the disclosure of housing market data from the release of the New Home Sales Index, which may indicate a decline 1.8% to about 750 thousand homes compared to a rise of 1.8% at about 764 thousand homes in January.

Other than that, we followed yesterday the Federal Reserve announced a new stimulus package to support the economy from the repercussions of the Corona virus, and the Federal Reserve statement stated that it is committed to using a set of tools to support the economy in this difficult period and thus enhance employment and price stability, explaining that the Federal Open Market Committee has gone ahead Go ahead and closely monitor market conditions and evaluate the appropriate pace of securities purchases at future meetings.

The Fed’s statement also stated that the Federal Committee decided, as of Monday, March 23, that the bank would commit to conducting open market operations according to need, in addition to establishing a new loan program to support students, and that a loan program to support small and medium-sized companies would be announced soon, and we would like to point out that These measures by the Federal Reserve are unprecedented, as it does not place any restrictions on the assets that have been announced to be purchased as necessary.

This comes in the wake of the surprising meeting of the Federal Reserve on the 16th of March, which is the second surprising meeting in less than two weeks, after the previous surprising meeting on the third of this month in which the monetary policy makers of the Federal Reserve decided to return at the benchmark interest rates. Short-term to zero levels reached in the wake of the worsening global financial crisis more than a decade ago

The members of the Federal Open Market Committee reduced the interest on federal funds at the time by 100 basis points to between zero levels and 0.25%, which it remained in since 2008 until the meeting of 27-28 October 2015, after reducing it in the previous emergency meeting by 50 A base point is between 1.00% and 1.25%, and this comes after the committee members cut interest three times by 25 basis points in previous meetings last year.

Technical analysis

The Australian dollar pair against the US dollar ended yesterday's trading above 0.5786, and opened the day with a strong rise to reach the level of 0.5958, which provides signals on the price trend to make more expected bullish correction in the intraday and short term, especially since the price shows the features of a double bottom model that appears in the picture, Noting that a break of 0.5958 will push trades towards 0.6097 directly.

Therefore, the bullish trend will be expected for today, noting that a break of 0.5786 will stop the positive scenario and press the price to drop again.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.5800 support and 0.6030 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bullish.