AUD analysis 11.03.2020

The Australian dollar fluctuated in a narrow range tilted to the upside during the Asian session, to witness the resumption of its rebound from the lowest since the tenth of March 2009 against the US dollar, following the developments and economic data that it reported on the Australian economy, which included the speech of the Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Jay Debley, in Sydney. The expected economic developments and data on Wednesday by the US economy, the largest economy in the world.

At exactly 03:08 AM GMT, the Australian dollar pair rose against the US dollar by 0.05% to 0.6508 levels compared to the opening levels at 0.6505, after the pair achieved its highest level during the trading session at 0.6514, while achieving the lowest at 0.6480.

We have followed the Australian government announced a health package worth A $ 2.4 billion ($ 1.56 billion) and stated that it will provide "unprecedented support through primary care, care for the elderly in addition to hospitals, research and the national medical inventory", according to the latest figures issued by the World Health Organization The number of cases infected with the Coronavirus has increased to nearly 114,000, and more than 4,000 people have died from the virus worldwide.

This came before we witnessed the speech of Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Jay Deabelle, at the Australian Financial Review Business Summit in Sydney, in which he stressed that any quantitative easing measures that the Australian Central Bank will adopt will focus on “interest objectives rather than determining the level of bond purchases”, and before disclosing The Weissback consumer confidence index showed a decline of 3.8% to 91.9 compared to a rise of 2.3% at 95.5 last January.

On the other hand, investors are looking for the US economy to disclose inflation data with the release of the consumer price index, which may reflect stability at zero levels against 0.1% growth in January, while the fundamental reading of the same indicator may show stability at 0.2% during February In February, the annual reading of the same index may reflect slowing growth to 2.2% versus 2.5%, and the substantial annual reading of the index may show stability at 2.3%.

This comes before we witness the testimony of the US Treasury Secretary on the budget proposed by the administration of the Republican President Donald Trump for the fiscal year 2021 before the Subcommittee on Foreign Operations and Related Programs in Washington, leading to the disclosure of the US Treasury Department about the reading of the federal budget, which may reflect the breadth The deficit amounted to $ 238.1 billion, compared to $ 32.6 billion in January.

Technical analysis

Yesterday the Australian dollar versus the US dollar traded with a strong negative yesterday, approaching our expected target at 0.6430, reinforcing expectations for the bearish trend to continue in the intraday and short term, noting that breaking this level will extend the descending wave to reach 0.6230.

On the other hand, it should be noted that a break of 0.6570 will push the price to test the pivotal resistance 0.6670 again before any new attempt to decline.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6430 support and 0.6570 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bearish.