EUR analysis 28.02.2020

The single currency fluctuated the euro in a narrow range slanting back down during the Asian session to witness its bounce for the second session from the top since February 6, while its second weekly gains in a row and about its second consecutive monthly losses against the US dollar are still on the cusp of developments and data The economic outlook today, Friday, by the euro area and the US economy.

At 05:30 am GMT, the euro against the US dollar fell 0.02% to 1.0999 levels compared to the opening levels at 1.1001 after the pair achieved its lowest level during the trading session at 1.0982, while achieving the highest at 1.1005.

Investors are looking to the largest euro zone economies, Germany, for the release of the import price index, which may reflect a slowdown in growth to 0.1% compared to 0.2% last December, while the annual reading of the same indicator may show a decline in the decline to 0.3% against 0.7%, And that is before we also witnessed by Germany the disclosure of the initial reading of the consumer price index, which may reflect the growth of 0.3% compared to the contraction of 0.6% last January.

This comes before we witnessed by France, the second largest economy in the region, the disclosure of the final reading of the GDP index, which may reflect the stability of the contraction at 0.1%, little changed from what it was in the previous preliminary reading of the fourth quarter, while the final annual reading may also appear The same indicator recorded growth at 0.8%, little changed from what it was in the previous annual reading for the previous quarter.

This also comes in conjunction with the release of the consumer spending reading for France, which may reflect the contraction of the decline to 0.1% compared to 0.3% in January, and the disclosure of the initial reading of the consumer price index, which may reflect stability at zero levels against a contraction of 0.4% in January , Up to the release of the unemployment change reading for Germany, which may reflect a rise of about 4 thousand compared to a decline of two thousand in January.

In another context, Deutsche Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann will participate in a press conference on the 2019 annual report in Frankfurt, before we witness by Italy, the third largest economy in the euro area, the disclosure of the initial reading of the consumer price index, which may reflect the stability of growth at 0.1% in February, coinciding with an assessment by investors of the spread of the Coruna virus in the European Union, especially in Italy.

On the other hand, investors are awaiting by the US economy, the largest economy in the world, the release of the merchandise trade balance index, which may explain the widening of the deficit to $ 68.5 billion compared to $ 68.3 billion in December, in conjunction with the release of the initial reading of the wholesale inventory index That may reflect a 0.1% rise versus a 0.1% fall in December.

This comes in conjunction with the disclosure of spending and personal income data, which may reflect the stability of personal spending growth at 0.3%, little changed from the previous reading in December, and personal income growth accelerated to 0.3% compared to 0.2% in December, while it may A reading of the core personal consumption expenditures index shows the stability of the pace of growth in January at 0.2%.

Markets are also looking to the largest industrialized country in the world to reveal industrial sector data with the release of the Chicago PMI reading, which may reflect a contraction contraction of 46.1 compared to 42.9 in January, to reveal the final reading of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index, which Shrinkage widening may appear to 100.7 versus 100.9 in the first preliminary reading of the current month and versus 99.8 in January.

Technical analysis

The euro against the dollar trades stable around the 1.1008 level after yesterday's bullish rally, and achieved a breach of the resistance line that appears in the picture, which supports the chances of achieving a further rise during the upcoming sessions, noting that exceeding the mentioned level will push the price to 1.1063 as a next corrective station .

Thus, the bullish bias will be expected for today, taking into consideration that breaking 1.0954 will stop the suggested rise and lead the price to resume the main bearish path again.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0920 support and 1.1080 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bullish.