Gold analysis 25.02.2020

Gold price futures fluctuated in a narrow range that tilted back down during the Asian session to witness its bounce for the second session from the top since January 23, 2013, while neglecting the US dollar index rebound to the fourth session from the top since April 21, 2017 according to the inverse relationship The two are on the threshold of the expected economic developments and data on Tuesday by the US economy, which includes the talk of members of the Federal Open Market Committee and a market assessment of the spread of the Corona virus outside China, which could make it a global pandemic.

At exactly 04:18 AM GMT, gold price futures for April delivery fell 0.19% to trade at $ 1,658.60 per ounce compared to the opening at $ 1,661.80 per ounce, knowing that the contracts started the session’s trading on a falling price gap after yesterday's trading was concluded At $ 1,676.60 an ounce, while the US dollar index fell 0.09% to 99.24 compared to the opening at 99.33.

Investors are now looking to the US economy to reveal the housing market data with the release of the House Price Index reading, which may show an acceleration of growth to 0.4% compared to 0.2% last November. The annual reading of the S&P House Price Index also showed that the growth accelerated to 2.8% vs. 2.6% in the prior annual reading for November.

This comes before we witness the speech of a member of the Federal Committee and Chairman of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank Robert Kaplan at the Kansas City Real Estate Seminar, and before the release of the consumer confidence index, which may appear widening to 132.6 compared to 131.6 last January, in conjunction with the disclosure of industrial sector data from For the largest industrialized country in the world with the release of the Richmond Industrial Index reading, which may reflect the narrowing of the expansion to 10 compared to 20 in January.

Up to the talk of Fed member and Deputy Governor of the Federal Reserve Richard Clarda about the economic and political monetary expectations at the annual conference of the National Association for Business Policy in Washington, and this comes amid the aspiration to reveal, after tomorrow, Thursday, the initial reading of the gross domestic product of the United States for the first quarter, which may appear The growth pace of the world's largest economy accelerated to 2.2%, compared to 2.1% in the fourth quarter.

On the other hand, we followed yesterday the Director-General of the World Health Organization expressed that it is still possible to contain the outbreak of the Corona virus and that the virus is not out of control and especially with the death toll not significantly increased, explaining that it is too early to describe its spread as a global epidemic, stressing that it is It is inappropriate to use this description now and that it should focus on efforts to contain it, despite the possibility of it turning into a serious pandemic.

It is noteworthy that the Director-General of the World Health Organization said last Thursday that the decrease in the number of cases infected with Coronavirus outside China "may not remain the same for a long time", and we followed during the weekend, the report that touched on Italy's cancellation of some public events, including the Venice Festival in addition to closing Turkey temporarily borders with Iran and in South Korea, Samsung Electronics closed its factory there due to the spread of the virus.

We would like to point out that the global stock indices witnessed early losses this week, with the growing fears of spreading the Corona virus globally, especially after South Korea raised the state of alert to confront the virus to "the highest level" after the recent rise in the number of cases there and the high case in Italy and Iran in which it Most of the infected cases are in the Middle East, in addition to the announcement of three Gulf countries that reported the first cases of the virus.

In the same vein, we have just followed the announcement of China about 508 new cases of coronavirus and that there are about 71 additional deaths as of February 24, bringing the total number of cases of the deadly virus in China to 77,658 confirmed cases and deaths about 2,663 This case coincided with a rise in the number of coronavirus patients in Italy, which in turn announced at least 130 new cases.

Technical analysis

Gold price trading rebounded significantly after touching the resistance of the bullish channel that appears in the picture, to make some downward correction to the recent rise that started from 1547.50 areas, where the price settles around 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1655.90, and the price needs to hold above this level to ensure that no further exposure Negative pressure.

The stochastic indicator is getting rid of its negative momentum significantly to support the chances of resuming the main bullish trend, to keep our expectations for the overall bullish trend whose next main target is located at 1720.00, noting that breaking 1655.90 then 1635.20 levels will press the price to achieve further decline and visit 1601.70 areas before any attempt New to rise.

The expected trading range for today is between 1640.00 support and 1680.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Overall bullish.