AUD analysis 02.02.2020

The Australian dollar fell during the Asian session to witness its lowest level since March 18 of 2009 against the US dollar, following the developments and economic data that it had reported on the Australian economy and on the cusp of developments and economic data expected Thursday by the US economy, the largest economy in the world.

At exactly 02:53 AM GMT, the Australian dollar pair declined against the US dollar by 0.51% to 0.6641 levels, compared to the opening levels at 0.6674, after the pair achieved its lowest in more than a decade at 0.6633, while achieving the highest during trading The session is at 0.6695.

This has followed us on the Australian economy, the disclosure of labor market data with the release of the unemployment rate reading, which showed an increase to 5.3% compared to 5.1% last December, worse than the expectations that indicated its rise to 5.2%, and this came with the reading of the change index showing in Employment, up to about 13.5 thousand, compared to a rise of about 28.7 thousand in December, is better than expectations, which indicated an increase to about 10.0 thousand.

On the other hand, investors are currently waiting for the US economy to disclose data on the industrial sector with the release of the Philadelphia Industrial Index reading, which may reflect a shrinkage in breadth to 10.1 compared to 17.0 last January, and this comes in conjunction with the release of the index of aid requests for the week Last February 15th, which may reflect a rise of 5 thousand requests to 210 thousand requests compared to 205 thousand requests in the previous weekly reading.

This also comes in conjunction with the issuance of the reading of the continuous benefit requests index for the past week on the eighth of this week, which may reflect an increase of 19 thousand applications to 1,717 thousand applications compared to 1,698 thousand requests in the previous weekly reading, up to the disclosure of reading the leading indicators that may appear Up 0.4%, compared to a decline of 0.3% in December.

This comes hours after the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held on January 28-29, during which members of the committee approved the maintenance of short-term benchmark interest rates between 1.50% and 1.75% for the third meeting, respectively. The minutes mentioned that the current monetary policy is appropriate and will remain in place for some time, indicating that the interest on federal funds remains unchanged during the coming period.

Technical analysis

The Australian dollar versus the US dollar managed to break the 0.6670 level and is trying to stabilize below it, which supports the continuation of our effective expectations for the downside trend during the coming period, paving the way for the trend towards 0.6560 which represents our next main station.

Therefore, we await further decline today, noting that stability below 0.6670 is important for the continuation of the suggested bearish bias.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6580 support and 0.6670 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bearish.