EUR analysis 05.02.2020

The single currency fluctuated the euro in a narrow range slanting back down during the Asian session to witness its bounce to the fifteenth session in twenty-six sessions from its highest since the seventh of August against the US dollar on the threshold of developments and economic data expected today Wednesday by the economies of the euro area and the American economy, which These include European Central Bank Governor Christine Lagarde’s talk in Paris and Federal Open Market Committee member and Deputy Governor of the Federal Reserve Lyle Brenard about the innovation of payment at Stanford University.

At exactly 05:37 AM GMT, the euro against the US dollar fell 0.07% to 1.1036 levels compared to the opening levels at 1.1044, after the pair achieved its lowest level during the trading session at 1.1034, while achieving the highest at 1.1046.

The markets are looking to Spain, the euro zone's fourth largest economy, to disclose the services PMI reading, which may show a shrinkage in value to 54.0 compared to 54.9 last December, before we see the same indicator reading for Italy, the third largest economy in the region. It could also reflect a shrinkage in breadth to 50.3 versus 51.1 in December.

Investors are also looking for France, the second largest economy in the eurozone, to disclose the final reading of the services PMI, which may show the stability of expansion at 51.7 unchanged from the initial reading for the past month and against 52.4 in the previous reading for the month of December, before the final reading of the index Same for Germany, which may also explain the stability of the expansion at 54.2, compared to 52.9 in December.

To reveal the final reading of the services PMI for the euro area as a whole, which may show the stability of the expansion at 52.2 unchanged from the initial reading of the previous month of January, and against 50.0 in December, as we may also witness about the economies of the euro area as a whole issued a reading of the index Retail sales for the Eurozone as a whole may explain a 0.5% decline versus a 1.0% rise last November.

On the other hand, investors are looking for the US economy to disclose preliminary data for the labor market with the release of the index of change in private sector jobs, which may reflect a slowdown in the pace of job creation to 157 thousand added jobs compared to 202 thousand added jobs in December, hours ago From the disclosure of the monthly report of jobs except agricultural and unemployment rates in addition to the hourly rate for the month of January after tomorrow, Friday.

This comes before we witness the release of the Trade Balance Index reading, which may reflect the widening of the deficit to $ 48.2 billion compared to $ 43.1 billion in November, before we witness the release of the final reading of the Service Supply Institute index by Marquette from the United States, which may reflect stability The breadth was at 53.2, unchanged from the prior reading of the previous month and from 52.8 in December.

To reveal the reading of the Institute of Service Supply index, which may show a widening of 55.1 compared to 55.0 in December, and we would like to point out, because the service provision lies in its importance in the fact that the service sector in the United States represents more than two thirds of the gross domestic product, which makes it One of the important economic data that gives an initial view of the pace of economic growth for the largest economy in the world.

Technical analysis

The euro against the dollar pair shows quiet negative trading to gradually move away from the EMA50, to keep the bearish trend valid and effective for the coming period, which targets 1.0985 then 1.0880 as the next main stations, with a reminder that the effect of the head and shoulders pattern is still effective and supports the expectations of the decline, which will remain in place Unless 1.1095 level is breached and stability above it.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0950 support and 1.1100 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bearish.