EUR analysis 04.02.2020

The single currency fluctuated the euro in a narrow range tilted to the upside during the Asian session to witness its bounce back to the third session in five sessions from the lowest since November 29, when it tested the lowest since October 10 against the US dollar on the cusp of developments and economic data Expected today, Tuesday, by the economies of the euro area and the US economy, the largest economy in the world.

At 05:39 am GMT, the euro against the US dollar fell 0.01% to 1.1061 levels compared to the opening levels at 1.1060, after the pair achieved its highest level during the trading session at 1.1064, while achieving the lowest at 1.1054.

The markets are looking forward to the issuance of the treasury budget reading for France, the second largest economy in the euro area, before we witness by Spain, the fourth largest economy in the region, the reading of the unemployment change index, which may reflect a rise of 44.2 thousand compared to a decline of 34.6 thousand in the previous reading of last December. And before the CPI reading for Italy, the region’s third-largest economy, may show a 0.2% contraction versus a 0.2% growth in December.

This comes in conjunction with the disclosure of inflation data for the economies of the region as a whole with the release of the producer price index, which is an initial indication of inflationary pressures, which may show a slowdown in the pace of growth to 0.1% compared to 0.2% last November, while the annual reading of the same indicator may show a contraction Shrinkage to 0.7% versus 1.4% in the prior annual reading for November.

Otherwise, we followed this weekend, the European Union’s chief commissioner, Michel Barnier, expressed that the countries of the European Union wanted Britain to abide by the rules of the European Union, pointing out that the UK’s failure to comply with these rules may lead to unfair competition between the two parties, adding that Britain You will not have the agreement you want, but an agreement will be reached that will benefit the interests of Brussels and London.

Barnier also noted yesterday the importance of the European Union and Britain reaching an agreement on trade matters, adding that the European offer is fair and available for discussion, while touching that the British service sector will not be able to reach European countries, and told him that any trade agreement with Britain must include Consensus about fishing grounds, and it is reported that the chief commissioner of the European Union has expressed his vision in advance of the continued existence of risks towards Britain's exit from the European Union, especially regarding future relations between Brussels and London after the exit that was formally launched last Friday.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting by the US economy, the largest industrialized country in the world, the release of the factory orders index, which may reflect a 0.7% rise compared to a 0.7% decline in the past November, while the annual reading of the same index, excluding transportation, may show a slowdown in the pace of growth To 0.1%, compared to 0.3% in the prior annual reading for November.

Technical analysis

The EURUSD pair is trading around the 1.1060 level now, and the negative effect of the previously completed head and shoulders pattern is still effective, awaiting further decline during the upcoming sessions, where our first target is at 1.0985.

Stability below 1.1095 is required to continue the suggested descending wave, noting that exceeding the first target will push the price to 1.0880 as the next main station.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0970 support and 1.1120 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bearish.