Gold analysis 30.01.2020

Gold price futures fluctuated in a narrow range tilted to the upside during the Asian session amid the US dollar index rebounding for the second session from the top since December 2, according to the inverse relationship between them on the cusp of developments and economic data expected on Thursday by the American economy, the largest economy in The world is in the shadow of concern about the high number of corona virus victims.

At exactly 04:29 AM GMT, gold price futures for February delivery rose 0.15% to trade at $ 1,584.80 per ounce compared to the opening at $ 1,582.40 per ounce, knowing that the contracts started the trading session on an upward price gap after it concluded yesterday's trading At $ 1,576.00 an ounce, with the US dollar index down 0.01% to 98.00 compared to the opening at 98.01.

Investors are currently looking for the US economy to disclose the initial reading of the GDP of the United States for the fourth quarter, which may show the stability of the pace of growth for the largest economy in the world at 2.1%, little changed from what it was in the third quarter, as it may reflect the initial reading of the product Gross domestic price measured by the price for the past quarterly quarter, the pace of growth at 1.8% has also stabilized, with little change from the third quarter.

This comes in conjunction with the issuance of the index of aid requests for the last week on January 25th, which may reflect an increase of 4 thousand requests to 215 thousand applications, and hours after the members of the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously acknowledge the short-term reference interest rates between 1.50% and 1.75% for the third consecutive meeting during the Federal Commission meeting held on January 28-29 in Washington.

In the same vein, we followed yesterday, Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell stated during his press conference following the Federal Committee meeting, that the decisions of the committee depend on the economic data received, while touching that if inflation rates continue to fall below the Federal Reserve’s goal, then that This could lead to lowering inflation expectations and thus lowering interest, adding that inflation is expected to reach the target within the next three months.

Powell noted that the Federal Reserve is seeking to avoid stabilizing inflation below the target of two percent, while stating that there will be slight adjustments to the mandatory reserve surplus and that the general budget will continue to expand over time, adding that the Federal Reserve expects support from repurchases next April. , And he pointed out that it is unfortunate that the spread of the Corona virus and that it is expected to have a negative impact on the Chinese economy.

Powell also expressed the fact that the Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the situation regarding the spread of the Corona virus and its impact on the economy, while stating that there are some cautious optimism about the global economy, pointing out that financial conditions are improving and trade tensions have declined, indicating that his country signed with China for the first stage of the trade agreement. Between the two parties, this is in addition to the decrease in the chances of Britain leaving without an agreement from the European Union, which contributes to supporting the positive expectations.

Technical analysis

Gold price bounced up yesterday after building on SMA 50, to breach 1575.90 level and close the daily candle above it, which stops the intraday negative scenario and leads the price to return to the bullish direction again, on its way to achieving positive goals starting at 1611.20.

Thus, the bullish bias will be likely for today, noting that breaking 1575.90 and holding below it again will press the price to drop towards 1562.00 then 1554.10 before any new attempt to rise.

The expected trading range for today is between 1570.00 support and 1595.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bullish.