AUD analysis 27.01.2020

The Australian dollar fluctuated in a narrow range slanting back down during the Asian session to witness its bounce to the fifteenth session in nineteen sessions from the lowest since July 23 against the US dollar amid the scarcity of economic data at the beginning of this week from the Australian economy due to the holiday celebrating Australia Day And on the cusp of developments and economic data expected on Monday by the US economy, which includes a recorded speech by a member of the Federal Open Market Committee and President of the New York Federal Reserve Bank John Williams.

At exactly 02:34 AM GMT, the Australian dollar pair fell against the US dollar 0.21% to 0.6803 levels compared to the opening levels at 0.6817, after the pair achieved its lowest level since the tenth of last December at 0.6827, while achieving the highest during The session traded at 0.6827, knowing that the pair started the trading session on a falling price gap after it concluded the trading last week at 0.6832.

Investors are currently awaiting the presentation of a member of the Federal Committee and President of the New York Federal Reserve Bank John Williams opening remarks in the Puerto Rico Beach program in San Juan, via a pre-recorded video, before we witness the disclosure of the US housing market data with the release of the New Home Sales Index, which may It shows that the growth accelerated to 1.6% or about 731 thousand homes, compared to 1.3% at about 719 thousand homes last November.

This comes hours before the disclosure tomorrow, Tuesday, of the Durable Goods Orders reading, which represents about half of the consumer spending that represents more than two thirds of the gross domestic product in the United States, which may reflect a rise after its decline in November, before the release of a confidence index reading Consumers for the current month, which may reflect a widening from what it was in December.

Up to the start of the activities of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting January 28-29 in Washington, which is expected to remain on the short-term benchmark interest rates for the third consecutive meeting at between 1.50% and 1.75%, before the press conference to be held Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell half an hour after the FOMC meeting meeting expires on Wednesday.

After that, next Thursday, the markets are looking to reveal the initial reading of the United States’s GDP for the fourth quarter, which may show the fastest growth of the largest economy in the world to 2.2% compared to 2.1% in the third quarter, while the initial reading of the measured GDP may reflect Prices for the last quarter quarter stabilized at a pace of 1.8%, little changed from what it was in the third quarter.

Technical analysis

The Australian dollar versus the US dollar shows more bearish tendency to attack the bullish channel's support and is moving below it now, indicating that the price trend to achieve more decline during the coming period, is on its way to visit the previously recorded bottom at 0.6670 as a first negative target.

Therefore, the downside will be expected unless the 0.6875 level is breached and stability above it.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6750 support and 0.6840 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bearish.