Gold analysis 14.01.2020

Gold price futures fluctuated in a narrow range tilted toward decline during the Asian session, to witness its bounce for the third session in four sessions from its highest since March 22, 2013, disregarding the US dollar index rebound for the second consecutive session from its highest since December 26 / December, according to the inverse relationship between them on the threshold of developments and economic data expected today Monday by the US economy, the largest economy in the world.

At exactly 03:55 AM GMT, the gold futures contracts for February delivery fell 0.36% to trade at $ 1,557.40 per ounce compared to the opening at $ 1,563.00 per ounce, knowing that the contracts started the trading session on an upward price gap after the week's trades were concluded The past at $ 1,560.10 an ounce, while the US dollar index fell 0.07% to 97.35 compared to the opening at 97.41.

Investors are currently awaiting the US Treasury’s unveiling of the federal budget reading, which may reflect the deficit shrinkage to $ 15.0 billion compared to $ 208.8 billion last November, while the markets are looking for later this week by the US economy to disclose data Inflation and retail sales account for about half of consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US GDP.

Investors are also looking forward to the results of FOMC members ’talk, John Williams, about the culture of financial services at a workshop hosted by the London School of Economics, and the President of the Philadelphia Fed on the normalization of monetary policy at the official forum of monetary and financial institutions in New York, and about the economic outlook at the New Jersey Banking Leadership Forum later.

This comes before we witness next Wednesday the unveiling of the Beige Book report, which is important in that it is issued two weeks before the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, which is one of the pillars on which the monetary policy makers of the Federal Reserve build their decisions and directions to support and stimulate the American economy, knowing, The next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to be held in Washington on January 28/29.

Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan is also due to speak at the Economic Club in New York, before Fed Vice Governor Randall Quarles spoke about banking supervision at the annual meeting of the American Bar Association Banking Law Committee in Washington by the end of this week, and in another context European Central Bank Governor Christine Lagarde will be speaking on Thursday at the New Year's reception in Frankfurt.

Otherwise, markets are awaiting next Friday to reveal the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the largest consumer of metals globally and the second largest economy in the world and the second largest industrialized country globally from the seasonally adjusted reading of GDP for the fourth quarter, which reflects the slowdown in the pace of growth to 1.4% compared to 1.5% during the last third quarter , While the annual reading of the same indicator may show the stability of the pace of growth at 6.0%, little changed from the previous annual reading for the third quarter.

In the same context, the office is also expected to reveal the annual reading of the retail sales index, which shows a slowdown in the pace of growth to 7.9% compared to 8.0% in the previous annual reading for the month of November, while the annual reading of industrial production may show a stable pace of growth at 6.2% Little change from the previous annual reading for the month of November, with the disclosure of the reading of the unemployment rate index for the month of December.

Otherwise, today, Chinese Vice Prime Minister and head of the Chinese negotiating team in trade talks will travel to Washington for a visit that expires next Wednesday, according to the Chinese Ministry of Commerce. US President Donald Trump and Chinese officials are expected to sign the first stage of the trade deal Waiting for it between the United States and China, which aims to ease trade tensions between Washington and Beijing at the White House on the 15th of this month.

We would like to point out, because gold prices last week ended their longest weekly gains march in six months with a decline during the previous week for the first time in six weeks, after last Wednesday ended their longest daily gains march in more than three decades after having tested the $ 1,600 per ounce barrier For the first time in seven years, in the wake of reduced concerns about geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially the outbreak of war between the United States and Iran.

Technical analysis

The gold price opened today with a noticeable negativity to succeed in touching our first target at 1536.50, and we believe that the field is open to continue the decline during the upcoming sessions, noting that exceeding this level will push the price to 1519.00 directly.

Therefore, the downside direction will remain favorable for today, supported by the negative pressure formed by the EMA50, noting the importance of holding below 1556.70 for the continuation of the expected decline.

The expected trading range for today is between 1519.00 support and 1550.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bearish.