EUR analysis 09.01.2020

The euro currency fluctuated in a narrow range tilted to the upside during the Asian session against the US dollar on the threshold of economic developments and data expected on Thursday by the euro area economies, which include the dumping of President Deutsche Bundesbank (German Central Bank) Jens Weidmann giving a speech under the title "Economy in a stage Transitional - Politics Required? In the Cologne Chamber of Commerce and Industry and on the cusp of developments and economic data expected by the American economy, which includes the speech of members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

At exactly 05:55 AM GMT, the euro pair rose against the US dollar by 0.12% to 1.1118 levels compared to the opening levels at 1.1105, after the pair achieved its highest level during the trading session at 1.1120, while it achieved the lowest at 1.1103.

The markets are currently looking to Germany, the largest economy in the eurozone, to disclose the current account reading, which may reflect the widening of the surplus to 23.8 billion euros against 22.7 billion euros last October, in conjunction with the release of the trade balance reading, which may also show the widening of the surplus. To 20.9 billion euros, compared to 20.6 billion euros in October, amid expectations for a decline in exports and a rise in imports in November.

This comes in conjunction with the issuance of the seasonally adjusted reading of the industrial production index also for Germany, which may reflect a 0.9% increase compared to a decline of 1.7% in October, before we witness from Italy the third largest economy in the region the release of the unemployment rates, which may show an increase to 9.8% Compared to 9.7% in October, leading to the release of the unemployment rates for the euro area as a whole, which may show stability at 7.5% during the month of November.

On the other hand, investors are looking forward to the results of the speech of the Federal Committee member and Deputy Governor of the Federal Reserve, Richard Clarda, who will deliver a speech titled "The American Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy" at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, and this comes before we witness the release of the aid requests reading for the week Elapsed on the fourth of this month, which may reflect a decrease of 1 thousand requests to 221 thousand requests.

In the same context, the reading of the continuous benefit claims index for the week that ended on December 28 also showed a decline by 9 thousand applications to 1,719 thousand applications compared to 1,728 thousand applications, before we witnessed the dumping of another member of the Federal Committee, the governor of the Minneapolis Bank Federal Reserve Neil Kashari, opening speech at the Federal Reserve Regional Economic Conditions conference in Minneapolis.

To the talk of another member of the Federal Committee, New York Fed Governor John Williams, about targeting inflation at the Bank of England’s economic workshop in London, and that comes about a week after the minutes of the FOMC meeting held on December 10-11 December, by which he decided to keep interest rates at between 1.50% and 1.75% for the second meeting in a row.

We would like to point out, because Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell noted at the time during the press conference that the Fed’s meeting ended, that it is possible for the Federal Reserve to expand its activities to purchase short-term treasury bills if necessary to increase liquidity in the banking system, and this came In the wake of the October Treasury Department launching a $ 60 billion treasury bill program to purchase Treasury Bills per month.

Technical analysis

The EURUSD pair confirmed the breach of the bullish intraday channel support after the daily candle closed below it, which opens the way for the continuation of the bearish bias targeting the support of the main bullish channel at 1.1050, noting that we will be waiting for an upside bounce after visiting the mentioned support.

Thus, a bearish trend will be likely today unless the 1.1140 level is breached and stability above it, noting that a break of 1.1045 will press the price to achieve a further decline in the longer term.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.1030 support and 1.1180 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bearish.