AUD analysis 09.01.2020

The Australian dollar fluctuated in a narrow range tilted to the upside during the Asian session to witness its bounce for the second session from the top since December 19 against the US dollar, following the economic developments and data that it had reported on the Australian economy and on the cusp of developments, data and developments expected Thursday by the American economy The largest economy in the world which includes the talk of members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

At 02:32 am GMT, the Australian dollar pair rose against the US dollar by 0.12% to 0.6874 levels compared to the opening levels at 0.6866, after the pair achieved its highest level during the trading session at 0.6881, while achieving the lowest at 0.6863.

We have followed on from the Australian economy the release of the Trade Balance Index reading, which indicated the widening of the surplus to 5.80 billion Australian dollars against 4.08 billion Australian dollars, which was adjusted from a surplus of 4.50 billion Australian dollars last October, exceeding expectations that indicated the widening of the surplus to An amount of A $ 4.10 billion.

On the other hand, investors are looking forward to the results of the speech of the Federal Committee member and Deputy Governor of the Federal Reserve, Richard Clarda, who will deliver a speech titled "The American Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy" at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, and this comes before we witness the release of the aid requests reading for the week Elapsed on the fourth of this month, which may reflect a decrease of 1 thousand requests to 221 thousand requests.

In the same context, the reading of the continuous benefit claims index for the week that ended on December 28 also showed a decline by 9 thousand applications to 1,719 thousand applications compared to 1,728 thousand applications, before we witnessed the dumping of another member of the Federal Committee, the governor of the Minneapolis Bank Federal Reserve Neil Kashari, opening speech at the Federal Reserve Regional Economic Conditions conference in Minneapolis.

To the talk of another member of the Federal Committee, New York Fed Governor John Williams, about targeting inflation at the Bank of England’s economic workshop in London, and that comes about a week after the minutes of the FOMC meeting held on December 10-11 December, by which he decided to keep interest rates at between 1.50% and 1.75% for the second meeting in a row.

We would like to point out, because Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell noted at the time during the press conference that the Fed’s meeting ended, that it is possible for the Federal Reserve to expand its activities to purchase short-term treasury bills if necessary to increase liquidity in the banking system, and this came In the wake of the October Treasury Department launching a $ 60 billion treasury bill program to purchase Treasury Bills per month.

Technical analysis

The Australian dollar versus the US dollar is trading around the EMA50, and we are still waiting for a further drop to test the support of the bullish channel at 0.6790 as a next negative target.

Therefore, we will continue to favor the bearish trend for the upcoming period, noting that a break of 0.6920 will stop the expected decline and lead the price to head towards 0.7015 areas again.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6800 support and 0.6920 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bearish.